[PEN-L:390] Re: period of distress

[Rosser Jr, John Barkley]

Tom,
     Of course you may be right.  Predicting the stock 
market in the short run is a mug's game, as Jim D. said in 
another context recently.  
     But, I would suggest that if this big meeting does not 
come up with something fairly convincing, the likelihood of 
a major crash this month is a lot higher than 1 in 20.  And 
the latest I have read is of a lot of disagreement and 
confusion with pretty minor changes being talked about, in 
short of lot of sound and fury signifying nothing.
Barkley Rosser
On Sun, 04 Oct 1998 09:44:17 -0700 Tom Walker 
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

> Barkley Rosser wrote,
> 
> >     The US stock market peaked on July 17 and has been 
> >sliding since basically.  The Fed's cut was supposed to 
> >prop it up.  It doesn't look like it's working.  Indeed, it 
> >is October, the historical month of great crashes, and 
> >panic finally seems to be seriously setting in.  Hold your 
> >hats, folks.
> 
> This is true enough. But it also has to be remembered that the increased
> likelihood of a great crash is only a statistical probability. The G-7
> bankers and ministers could well come up with a contingency plan solely to
> avert an OCTOBER crash just so that they can declare "victory" on November 1.
> 
> By my reckoning, the great crash could happen at any time in the next three
> or four years or not at all. As bad as things are, the odds are probably
> about 20 to 1 against it happening THIS month. Relatively speaking, those
> odds are pretty scary. But they suggest that there's still wiggle room for
> the capos.
> 
> My gut feeling is that, despite whatever the historical pattern of crashes
> has been, this thing will play itself out differently -- not with a bang but
> a suffocating whimper. This would be in keeping with my view that the system
> we're talking about is not _really_ capitalism but a kind of a state
> centralized _simulation_ of capitalism. Like Disneyland's Main Street, it's
> been designed to look more 'authentic' than the real thing (until you go
> back stage where they do the security and accounting).
> 
> Regards, 
> 
> Tom Walker
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-- 
Rosser Jr, John Barkley
[EMAIL PROTECTED]