[PEN-L:1973] BLS Daily Report

[Richardson_D]

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BLS DAILY REPORT, MONDAY, JANUARY 4, 1999

Consumers' quick draw with credit cards and checkbooks will slow in 1999,
constrained by tepid job growth, rising debt, insecurity about the future,
and a stock market that no longer seems able to guarantee spectacular
returns, economists predict.  All but one of the 25 economists surveyed by
the Bureau of National Affairs in mid-to-late December predict U.S. growth
will become lackluster in 1999, restrained by a drop off in consumer
spending. ...  Because consumer spending has driven the spectacular U.S.
expansion in the last few years, most analysts participating in BNA's annual
survey say an economic slowdown is inevitable.  Although economists have
expected the economy to cool for some time, growth continued robust and
unabated.  But, they say, 1999 will be different.  Forces have aligned to
almost surely brake expansion to a level of 1.4 percent to 2.8 percent, all
but one survey participant predicts. ...  Job market growth will cool its
heels this year, in response to thriftier consumers, corporate profit
squeezes, and increasing layoffs.  Nonetheless, most economists surveyed
predict that the unemployment rate, while creeping higher, will stay below 5
percent. ...  Looking to defend and sustain domestic growth, the Fed will
stay on an easing track in 1999, with one eye focused on real economic
events at home and the other on developments abroad. ...  Most economists
expect only a modest uptick in inflation this year, as consumer prices are
kept at bay by low oil prices, rising unemployment, excess industrial
capacity, and global competition. ...  At the start of 1999, indications are
that the global economy is headed for another year of slow growth, but the
world's financial crisis should not result in a recession, analysts say. ...
(Daily Labor Report, 1999 Economic Outlook section).

The U.S. economy is expected to grow at a slower pace in 1999 than last
year, according to most economists participating in a semiannual survey.
Global uncertainties are making forecasting trickier, economists say. ...
(Wall Street Journal, page A2).

New claims filed with state agencies for unemployment insurance benefits
rose dramatically, up 79,000 to a seasonally adjusted 368,000 in the week
ended Dec. 26, the Employment and Training Administration announces.  Winter
storms in several areas of the country have been cited as reasons for the
increase. ...  (Daily Labor Report, page D-1; Wall Street Journal, page
A4)_____New claims soared at the fastest pace in more than 6 years, but the
figure may have been skewed by bad weather and the Christmas holiday. ...
Economists in the private sector had expected new claims to rise to only
312,000. ...  (Washington Post, Jan. 1, page D1)_____The increase in claims
could be a sign that hard times abroad are hitting American companies
harder. ...  (New York Times, Jan. 1, page C2).

The Conference Board's help-wanted index jumped 4 percentage points in
November, signaling continued job growth, the board announces.  The index
increased to 91 percent of its 1987 base, still below the 93 percent
recorded one year ago.  "The great American job machine is not broken," one
economist with the Conference Board says.  "It isn't even slowing." ...
(Daily Labor Report, page A-8).

Manufacturing in the Midwest picked up unexpectedly in December, helped by
rising production and an increase in inventories, according to the National
Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago. ...  (New York Times, Jan. 1,
page C4).

The Wall Street Journal's consensus forecast is that, in December, nonfarm
payrolls rose 193,000, and the unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage
point to 4.5 percent. 

One of the enduring goals of the labor movement is to achieve uniform
contract terms throughout each industry.  Unions typically were able to meet
this objective when the workforce was highly unionized.  But as organized
labor's strength declined in recent decades, so too has its ability to reach
pattern agreements, according to labor officials and labor-management
specialists interviewed by BNA. ...  Pattern bargaining is still widely used
in some industries, including steel and petroleum, according to the research
director for the Midwest Center for Labor Research.  However, "pattern
bargaining, as defined in the 1950s and 1960s, is different and we're not
going back to that." ...  (Daily Labor Report, page C-1).


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