Michael,

It has been a while since I have looked at the numbers.  The CPS does
collect data on the percentage of the population with earnings and if
that percentage has declined for Blacks it could create the illusion of
increase in wages.  If this has happened it is most likely due to a
decline in labor force participation among black males.  I think this
makes the welfare argument very suspect since most young males cannot
qualify for welfare benefits.

Rudy
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