[PEN-L:4641] BLS Daily Report

[Richardson_D]

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BLS DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, MARCH 26, 1999

New claims for UI benefits fell 10,000, to a seasonally adjusted 289,000, in
the week ended March 20, the Employment and Training Administration of the
Department of Labor says. This represents the eighth consecutive week in
which the level of claims has fallen below 300,000, the longest stretch
since 1973, the agency said.  "Almost all indicators of the labor market
suggest strong employment gains in the months ahead," said an economist with
Merrill Lynch. ...  (Daily Report, page D-1; Wall Street Journal, page A2).

The Conference Board's help-wanted index edged down 1 percentage point in
February, but still indicates tight labor markets, the board says.  "There
is no suggestion that demand for labor will slacken," Conference Board
economist Ken Goldstein said. "Tight labor market conditions remain firmly
in place.  Consumer spending will continue to run at the same pace through
the next two quarters.  That will keep gross domestic product growth above
2.5 percent, and potentially close to 3 percent.  That much GDP growth could
easily generate 200,000 new jobs per month or more -- possibly much more --
to further reduce the unemployment rate. ...  (Daily Labor Report, page A-2;
Wall Street Journal, page A2).

Home resales fell 0.4 percent in February, while job gains, rising incomes,
and high consumer confidence kept sales above a record 5 million-home pace
for a third straight month, the National Association of Realtors said.  The
February resales decline was the first in 5 months. ...  (Washington Post,
page E10).

Higher oil prices won't wake the sleeping forces of inflation, at least not
at these levels.  With prices of benchmark crude up nearly 50 percent since
the fall, and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries making a bid
to further strengthen prices with production cuts, it is no wonder that some
people are getting jittery.  Some impact of rising prices already is
evident:  Gasoline refiners and retailers have rushed to pass the crude
price increases to the pump. ...  How could the price of oil, traditionally
the lifeblood of the U.S. economy, not matter much?  The U.S. economy is
very different than it was in 1973, when a quadrupling in oil prices during
the Arab oil embargo brought the U.S. to its knees. The U.S. economy still
runs on oil.  But the fastest growing sectors run on microchips, which are
getting cheaper all the time. ...  But with mathematical certainty, higher
oil prices will have some impact on the nation's inflation gauges. ...  And
higher prices will have some effect on economic growth, even if small. ...
(Wall Street Journal, page A2).      


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