This was sent to me from a friend who received it from a Canadian working for the World Bank in Macedonia. Paul Phillips Subject: Re: Canadian from Macedonia Date: Fri, 9 Apr 1999 14:07:33 -0500 This is a very interesting reading! Rob Gourley, former Winnipeger, is now with the World Bank in Macedonia, and has been for a few years. He is a close family friend with one colleague of mine. Regards Slobodan P. Simonovic Professor and Director Natural Resources Institute The University of Manitoba Winnipeg, Canada, R3T 2N2 phone (204)474-8375; fax (204)261-0038 e-mail [EMAIL PROTECTED] web site http://www.ce.umanitoba.ca/~simon Subject: More from Rob/Rachel Gourley Hi all.... We're getting daily accounts now - both from Rob and Rachel Gourley re Kosovo... I have patched together a composite to send to all of you; if it's more than you're wanting to read, please read from the BOTTOM LETTERS UP to the TOP - then you'll at least get the latest flavour and reality from the Gourleys! Rob's emails, passionate, candid and raw - seem now to be moving web-like throughout the world. Yes, they are making their way into the hands of top Canadian gov't officials... via many avenues... I think Rob and Rachel would be truly daunted to know how many hundreds+ of people are now on the "lists" and are passing them on themselves to others. Linda ****************************************************************************** * You should also take note of a website Tony Kennedy has sent us all to - he says, "For a good piece of background on Kosovo, try: http://www.ceip.org/programs/law/kosovo.htm Though from November 1997, it's well done and useful background, prepared by the European Action Council for Peace in the balkans and a group from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace." ****************************************************************************** * APRIL 5 - MESSAGE FROM ROB GOURLEY's WIFE RACHEL: EASTER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SKOPJE I have just heard that NATO leaders are to meet SOMETIME NEXT WEEK to discuss their next move. I also heard from the Skopje OSCE mission (not the despised KVM) that there are now 60 THOUSAND refugees at the Macedonian border at Blace (and another trainload was arriving as we spoke.) The border has been closed to any one with no destination outside Macedonia. The government knows there will be civil war in Macedonia if they accept any more refugees. It is Easter Saturday and anyone in a NATO country with enough clout to do anything to help immediately seems to be on holiday or unavailable. Meanwhile tens of thousands sit in the rain in no man's land. They are drinking water from a river which is the main sewer for any towns or villages up stream. It is raining and has been for days. Some of these people have been there for days and nights. Last night while NATO flew its million dollar planes overhead and destroyed 3 buildings with 8 million dollars worth of Cruise missiles at a million a piece, 12 people died at the Blace crossing. Many more are sick. This crossing is under great stress now as the Serbs clean out Pristina fully aware of the delicate political balance in Macedonia. Is this not the humanitarian disaster which bombing was to prevent? As I hear the planes flying overhead I feel as if I am in a nightmare. Its getting worse. The political rhetoric is getting more frantic. The politicians are not smiling any more. In fact they seem to be leaving the TV appearances to spokesmen. They have stopped showing Wesley Clark boasting about destroying and damaging. Marilyn Albright has gone into media hiding. Has someone lost the plot.? More and more planes, an aircraft carrier, ground troops which will take several weeks to assemble, bombs destroying the infra structure of a country now united behind a leader they hated 10 days ago. Thousands of people forced out of their homes, forced to leave their country, unable to leave their country. 250 journalists on the hill with their telephoto lenses trained on the misery below but no one who counts is listening. There is no sign of transport planes from Germany, Canada, England, the USA, from anywhere to take them out of no man's land. 6 PM NEWS . NATO HAS ANNOUNCED THAT THE MILITARY PEACE FORCE WILL SET UP REFUGEE CAMPS so someone was listening "BUT IT WILL TAKE A FEW DAYS " and the Macedonian government will have to be persuaded to open the border. It is raining and beginning to get dark. A few days time is a long way away. Robin Cook says he is going to send someone to assess the situation..!!! Does he not know what is happening? Was he not briefed about the Balkans when he decided to go with the bombing idea? We keep being told that the Western powers have been expecting this for years so why did they not plan for it. The refugees don't need assessing they need tents blankets medicine and food TONIGHT Do you think ranting is infectious?. I started this letter some days ago with the intention of reporting on the scene in Skopje as I saw it and telling you the odd story I had heard first hand but an account of the activities of the Expat community seems bit irrelevant tonight. Maybe tomorrow Rachel ****************************************************************************** * APRIL 5, AFTER 13TH DAY OF BOMBING - BY ROB: April 5: After the 13 day of bombing Serbia The skies have been clear for the past couple of days. Although Macedonia does not let its airports be used to attack Serbia, it's airspace is used by the NATO bombers as they fly into Kosovo on what the Canadian government mincingly calls a "humanitarian relief effort". All morning yesterday, and all last night, we could the bombers flying over, and then returning in the direction of their refueling tankers, or back to the airbases in Italy. Maybe now NATO will be able to provide some evidence that the Serbian military machine is in fact "being significantly degraded". The only cloud to such solid PR material is that tomorrow, April 6, marks the 58th anniversary of the date that the Nazis began their campaign of air terror against a defenceless Belgrade. The Serbs will be sure to make the obvious comparison. I expect that the US and Britain, in particular, will contribute to the potency of the Serbs historical reminder, by reference to these two countries treatment of the refugee crisis in countries bordering Kosovo. >From what I gather from CNN, Britain is not going to take any of the refugees, but is trying to pressure the Macedonian government to set up a sanctuary (aka camp) here. (Read, Britain is shutting its borders to refugees, under the platitude that "it is better to keep the refugees in the region, so they can go home more easily").Even better for the Serbs, the US idea of succouring to the misery of the Kosovar refugees is to send them to Guam (!) and Gwantanamo (spelling?). They are going to be kept in armed camps. I am sure not many Kosovars remember the plight of the Cuban boat people a few years ago, who end up in Gwantanamo as I recall. Do you think the Serbs will draw the obvious parallels form these camps? I am getting tired of being an accountant by day, and by night being what would have been called a "pamphleteer" in the 18th century. Our apartment is flooded with papers. We are glued to the TV throughout the evening, mostly to shout obscenities at Jamie Shea, James Rubin and Joe Lockhart, rather than to learn anything. Our friends from the non-combatant (non-humanitarian ?) diplomatic countries and the relief agency NGOs are exhausted with the effort of trying to deal with the Macedonian government's efforts to prevent the flood of refugees from creating a massive backlash amongst the majority Slavic population here. I know I swore off ranting several rants ago, but I still get infuriated at the duplicity and misinformation coming out of the West. Lets start with a small, simple example. Robin Cook, Britain's Foreign Secretary, has described the 3 US soldiers currently in Serb custody as "UN soldiers described by the Serbs as NATO". I would have thought that the Foreign Secretary would have known that the UN mandate in Macedonia ended on February 28, and that no (zero) UNPREDEP border patrols have been authorised since then. It is true that the soldiers had previously been part of the UNPREDEP mission, but by the time they were captured had been "rehatted", and were part of the NATO force. You will recall that this particular NATO force is simply waiting to play a peacekeeping role in Kosovo, assuming an agreement is finally reached. Until the refugee crisis erupted a few days ago, they had no role in Macedonia (now they are humanitarian workers too, only without cruise missiles). So what were the soldiers doing up near the border? Wesley Clarke claims they were "abducted". Were they? The border in the area where they were captured has never been agreed between Serbia and Macedonia; I don't know where the soldiers were, but I would bet that it was in a disputed area. The US demands that the soldiers be treated according to the Geneva Conventions. I find this very confusing. The US insists that it is at war with Milosevic, not the Serbian people ( the people in Novi Sad and Belgrade, in particular, may also find this puzzling). I don't suppose Milosevic ever signed the Geneva Conventions, but never mind. The US seems to think that the soldiers are prisoners of a humanitarian relief effort. As such, are they covered by the Geneva Conventions? Enough sarcasm on this topic; obviously the three young men deserve everyone's sympathy and concern. To more substantive issues. The West keeps on and on about the Serbs having to accept the framework of the Rambouillet "agreement". This document is frequently described as a "fair" agreement, which has been accepted by the Kosovars, (implying that the Serbs were irrational or obdurate in not signing themselves). There are two mysteries here; firstly, why the Kosovars did not leap at the opportunity to sign the deal at the first round of Rambouillet, and secondly, why the West thought there was ever a ghost of a chance that the Serbs would sign. The underlying reason is obvious- the Kosovars had to give up very little (basically the KLA would be legitimised by being given the chance put on uniforms and act as the policemen of Kosovo) and the Serbs would have to give up control of a part of their sovereign territory which plays such a large part in its mythology. You judge- this is the language of the draft Rambouillet deal. Imagine your response as a nationalistic Serb. Chapter 7 Article I: Cessation of Hostilities Para 2(a): ..under no circumstances shall any armed Forces enter, re-enter, or remain in Kosovo without the express consent of the [commander of the NATO peacekeeping force].. Article II Para 2: .. the Parties shall not engage in any military, security, or training activities, including ground, air, or air defence operations, in or over Kosovo, without the express prior approval of [the commander of the NATO force] Article IV All radars, surface-to-air missiles..and anti-aircraft artillery in Kosovo shall immediately be withdrawn from Kosovo to other locations [ more than 25 km outside Kosovo's "borders"] Article IX: The appropriate NATO commander shall have sole authority to establish rules and procedures governing command and control of the airspace over Kosovo, as well as within a 25 kilometre Mutual Safety Zone..consisting of FRY airspace within 25 KM outward from the borders of Kosovo with other parts of FRY (Serbia and Montenegro) Article VIII, Para 7 Forces failing to ...withdraw..following such a demand by [NATO] shall be subject to military action, including the use of necessary force to ensure compliance" In other words, the Serbs yield complete control over their territory to NATO. What do the Kosovars give up, beside their arms? Well, they probably didn't sign in the first round because they couldn't get the West to agree to their demand for independence. They had to be convinced (with side letters, I'm told) that the US wouldn't object if they interpreted the following clause to mean that the Kosovars could have a referendum after three years: "Chapter 8, Article 1, Para 3: Three years after the entry into force of this agreement, an international meeting shall be convened to determine a mechanism for a final settlement for Kosovo, on the basis of the will of the people, opinions of the relevant authorities, each Party's efforts regarding the implementation of this Agreement, and the Helsinki Final Act, and to undertake a comprehensive assessment of the implementation of this agreement and to consider proposals by any Party for additional measures" What sovereign nation could be expected to sign such an agreement? More to the point, under what circumstances could Serbia be expected to sign such an agreement now, after weeks of bombing have greatly aroused the nationalist passions of the Serbs? Well, in the face of overwhelming military force. In other words, in the face of the prospect of military defeat. Under what circumstances will airstrikes alone present this prospect? In view of the Serb's perception of themselves as victims, only under sustained destruction of the infrastructure of the nation- something like the Allied treatment of Germany in WWII after Germany's air defences had been destroyed. This is untenable for many reasons, not least of which is that if NATO continues to widen its targets, pretty soon we are going to have lots of images of Serbs killed and mutilated by the bombing. One of the other conditions laid down by the West for the cessation of bombing is that the refugees can return safely to live in their homes in Kosovo free from fear and repression. I have difficulty seeing how this is supposed to work. The Kosovars will quite rightly be terrified of returning unless they are protected. The Serbs will probably fight like mad to prevent such a protection force from taking control of Kosovo, so, to get the refugees back, the protection force may have to fight its way in. And, once in, there are two options; stay until hell freezes over, kind of like Viet Nam or Afghanistan for the Russians, or to build up a local force capable of defending themselves. Unfortunately, this would mean arming the KLA, which would be a certain recipe for a declaration of independence, followed immediately for a call for the creation of a "greater Albania". If heeded, this would mean a civil war in Macedonia. Which side would NATO support in such a conflict? In my last effort, I mistakenly suggested that a partition of Kosovo might be in the cards. I mis-spoke. This would be a terrible idea-the last thing this region needs is a new, ethnically pure nation (the Serb population of Kosovo would be cleansed), next to a Macedonia, a mixed nation, and a resentful Serbia. This couldn't possibly work. The West doesn't seem to have thought this through. The West collectively is insisting on the terms of Rambouillet, one of whose stated principles is the integrity of the existing borders of Serbia. On the other hand, astonishingly, we get Clinton (and Mad Albright, as one of my correspondents refers to the Secretary of State) musing about Milosevic jeopardising "his" claim to Kosovo if he keeps up "his" unacceptable behaviour. If the West decides that Serbia can't retain a province which has been part of its sovereign territory for the past 80 years, who is it going to give Kosovo to? Let it be a sovereign country by itself? Bad idea. Give it to Albania, and fuel the idea of a "greater Albania" in the region? That seems unlikely to produce the stable Europe that Clinton yearns to leave to his children. Give it to Macedonia, thus completely upsetting the unstable ethnic balance in that country? This could never happen- Macedonia would be torn apart at the very suggestion. What conclusion can be drawn from this unhelpful rejection of all the options the West seems to have? Regrettably, I have to conclude that the West has already lost the war. In fact, despite its overwhelming military might, it was always destined to lose it, as anybody with even a modicum of understanding of the history of the region could have foreseen. But, when the politicians of the West also come to this conclusion, and the TV cameras move on to the next crisis, what will be left here? Probably a huge military presence to protect people from each other, when previously, despite many uneasy relationships, no such presence was required. And deep resentment against the West, for its casual disregard of the realities of the region, and its cynical encouragement of the Kosovars' dream of independence. And a huge financial burden to rebuild all the infrastructure NATO has destroyed, which will have to be paid for by the West. Well, will the West at least have achieved one of its newest goals, the removal of Milosevic? I read with astonishment an article in the April 5 issue of the Washington Post which suggested that this might be an additional condition for any peace agreement (presumably with Serbia, even though the West would like to convince us that it is fighting Milosevic). Who does the West think might replace him? Vojislav Seselj? Vuk Draskovic? (both raving nationalists). Or are they going to impose on Serbia and Yugoslavia the West's own list of people it thinks might be suitable to form a government for these countries? How would it impose such a condition? Either by occupying Serbia (and possibly Montenegro) and running what would be puppet elections, or through crushing economic sanctions which would only allow Serbia to rebuild the infrastructure that NATO has destroyed, on political conditions dictated by the West. This is nonsense. Sorry, I obviously am deeply immersed in the situation, much to my surprise and distress. I hope that you, my readers, stay with me over the coming days. NATO's airstrikes will deteriorate into a grinding war of attrition, illuminated by inflated claims of success by its spokesmen. It will eventually "win", in some military sense; but it cannot ever win in a political sense. More importantly, over the next few days the tension between Kosovo's neighbours and the Western countries which have visited this disaster upon them will be the focus of attention, and a source of increasing danger in the region. ****************************************************************************** * APRIL 6 - REFUGEES IN MACEDONIA: - BY ROB: April 6: After the 14th night of bombing I guess it was bound to happen. This morning we have the international press vilifying the Macedonian government for its "inhuman" treatment of refugees, and for allegedly deliberately refusing to let the international aid agencies take over the handling of the refugees. Loud praise in the Western media for the offers of the western countries, led by the US (naturally) to temporarily house refugees. So, lets have a reality check. First, the Macedonians are terrified of the possible consequences of having the refugees loose in the community. Notwithstanding, they have already taken in some 130,000, some of whom are with host families, some of whom are in camps. This number is somewhat over 5% of the pre-crisis population, and doesn't take into account the unknown number of people stuck on the other side of the border. Macedonians are frightened because the refugees are ethnic Albanians, not Slavs. They are afraid that this influx may severely aggravate the call of the more extreme ethnic Albanians in western Macedonia for independence, or the formation of a "greater Albania". Consider the impact of a similar percentage of foreigners arriving in your community, even if they weren't carrying the baggage of ancient hatreds. Second, the Macedonian government has pointed out there is a certain amount of hypocrisy here. As of last night the EU countries who have loudly promised to take refugees had so far taken zero. The US has taken zero. The British seem unable to make up their minds as to whether to take any refugees, or not. Mr. Blair seems to think that they should "stay in the region, so it is easier for them to go home". I suppose Mr. Blair's statement sounds much more statesmanlike than saying "Not in my backyard", but it has exactly the same effect. Since nobody should expect that these people will be able to go home for many months, Mr. Blair's attitude must mean that the neighbouring countries, already the poorest in Europe, and in Macedonia's case anyway, another Balkan tinderbox, should bear the brunt of the catastrophe which they played no hand in creating. Nobody knows how many refugees there are now, or will be, by the time this is all over. I have difficulty with the hysterical double counting we see on the Western media, but clearly there will be at least half a million refugees by the end of the month. The west has promised to take 100,000; this sounds like a big number by itself, but when it is compared to the total number of refugees, it is a pretty paltry percentage. What is going to happen to the rest? For perfectly valid reasons of its own, Macedonia will try as hard as it can to keep no more than 40,000 maximum. What plans does the West have for the rest, other than to assure the refuges that they will be able to go to their destroyed homes, just as soon as NATO has finished destroying the rest of Yugoslavia? Perhaps a rather more meaningful airlift to western host countries would be in order. Thirdly, there have been delays at the border, partly because the temporary camps provided by the western countries had not been set up, until late yesterday. While I am quite prepared to believe that the Macedonian government was withholding a certain amount of co-operation to spur the western countries to get the tents in place, and to get their airlift arrangements in place, there simply was no place for the refugees to stay. The Macedonians' natural sympathy is with the Serbs. Their fragile economy is already being badly affected by the closure / destruction of Serbia, their biggest trading partner. They really have a lot of valid concerns of their own, and it doesn't help much to be lectured by the West (who are perceived as having contributed to the problem), without the West also offering tangible support and solutions. ****************************************************************************** * APRIL 8 - RACHEL'S WAR - BY RACHEL: SKOPJE . WEDNESDAY 7th APRIL Yesterday I managed borrow a video of Mrs. Brown which passed the evening so pleasantly that we actually relaxed. Unfortunately we have seen the British Council library's collection twice already. I am feeling quite frustrated because no matter how much I volunteer no one wants me. My Macedonian is poor and my Albanian is non existent. (Not true, I can say Good day and Good bye which is more than anyone else I know) I can't even claim to be computer literate. However apparently there are hundreds of relief workers here all getting in each others way and the army which is good at this sort of thing so I offer everywhere and go about the normal daily routine. When my children ask me "What did you do in the war Mummy." I will have to say that I chauffeured around the wife of the American Military Attaché whose husband won't allow her to drive her own car. I also cook for exhausted friends if they turn up in time. Usually too tired to eat, they don't want to talk about their day but can't talk of anything else. I am deluged with requests to take people hiking on the mountain. This is partly because normal activities have been curtailed to some extent and partly because since the skies cleared a few days ago we have had hot sunny summer weather. How's this for war work ! . The mountain is gorgeous. The lower slopes covered in blossom. Old men are tending the vineyards, the trees become green overnight, flowers, butterflies, baby goats. It is a spectacular time of year. I just wish that the green fields on the other side of the valley were not scarred by white line which grows longer every minute. (tents. ) My Swiss friend Suzanne has been driving a VIP media coordinator around for the last few days and is having a very interesting time. The tiny Swiss Embassy is swamped. They were the first people to actually start moving on humanitarian relief but now are snowed under by visitors who are so important that the relief efforts have to be suspended while the staff spend their time organizing things for them. All the Embassies are having this trouble. I offered my services as a driver but can hardly use the Privatization Agency's car and, like hotel rooms, cars are at a premium, drivers ten a penny. You would not believe how many people from every country find they need to come and "assess" the situation." The old timers call it Refugee Tourism. I had described to me by a completely exhausted worker on Sunday night the scene at the border. On the left side of the road is a sea of misery with policemen in full riot gear keeping them at bay. On the right up the hill are hundreds of journalists with their telephoto lenses searching for the most miserable. Frequently an Ambassador arrives in a shiny car with his entourage of smartly dressed visitors who get out and gaup then get back in their cars and return to the Alexander Palace hotel. I could tell you many stories about what has happened in Kosovo but I am sure you are tired of them. Meanwhile in Macedonia. It is now more than 2 weeks since the first bombs. Two weeks since the deluge of refugees started and a whole week since the Serbs started sending trainloads of refugees. The promised relief supplies didn't start arriving till last Sunday. Three days ago! Last night the first camp was finally ready for occupation. Only Norway and Turkey have actually sent planes to transport refugees to their countries though many countries have said they are taking them. Meanwhile Macedonia is been given a hard time, indeed has tonight been threatened by the US for being difficult.. Macedonia has already absorbed at least 40, 000 into its community. The valley contains a hundred thousand waiting for these promises to materialize. It shows an incredible insensitivity or an appalling lack of briefing. We find it hypocritical. No one wants these poor people. We have had 4 unexplained window rattling explosions during the last 20 hours. To our knowledge NATO has "lost" 3 missiles over Macedonia. May be the explosions were 4 more. No one seems to know or isn't saying. Nevertheless if there is any danger to us, it will come from a civil war rather than from a missile. (Unless NATO decides to bomb Macedonia) We are intending to go to Greece this weekend (Orthodox Easter) The concept of going away for the weekend seems to be very exciting Sorry to have to tell you I am not rolling bandages. Rachel ****************************************************************************** * APRIL 8, MACEDONIAN REFUGEES - BY ROB: April 8: After the 15th day of bombing: Return of the pamphleteer If you couldn't laugh, you would cry. Last night I heard on BBC that the United States that it had warned the Government of Macedonia that the US would hold it responsible for the highest standards of international law regarding the treatment of refugees. This from a nation which has completely ignored international law in bombing a sovereign nation which wasn't directly attacking it, and which, furthermore, has absolutely no intention of accepting even a single refugee on its soil. The British Government has weighed in with Ms. Claire Short (she of the "golden elephants" of Montserrat). Ms. Short has evidently learned her lesson, and has concentrated in her visit to Macedonia on haranguing the government and on photo ops with old men and children. Unfortunately, Britain itself has yet to indicate that it will accept a single refugee from the crisis, which somewhat undermines its moral high ground. The local press corps are infuriated and amazed at the disappearance overnight on April 6/7 of the occupants of the tent city at the border crossing, and in the no-mans-land between border stations. It seems that many of them were on-shipped to Albania and Greece. The international press are demanding to know if the refugees were consulted on their choice of destination, and if they were allowed to stay if they didn't want to go to, say, Turkey. As if the Macedonians were running a kind of refugee travel agency. The local TV is full of interviews of refugees saying, no thank you, I don't want to go to (pick a name), I want to go to the United States. I guess the US has not bothered to tell them where Guantanimo and Guam are, or what sort of accommodation they have arranged for the refugees if they ever get there. Not surprisingly, the government is a little prickly about this sort of criticism. In short, the international community is concentrating on the humanitarian problem, and completely ignoring the political problems in the region, which could have much wider and long lasting effects. One of my good friends produced a very good analogy the other day, which might help you put the plight of the Macedonians in some context, at least for those of you in the UK. It was, what do you think the chances of Mr. Blair's Good Friday agreement for Northern Ireland would be, if 250,000 Catholics were dumped into Northern Ireland next week? The article below appeared in the NY Times on April 6. It explains much better than I can the problems in Macedonia. When Victims Become a Threat By MISHA GLENNY LONDON -- NATO's plan to airlift 100,000 desperate refugees now streaming across the borders of Kosovo into Albania, Macedonia and Montenegro is a much needed measure. And it is appropriate that some NATO members -- including the United States, Germany and Turkey -- have offered to put up limited numbers of refugees in temporary camps. Alas, none of this will come close to solving the problem, since the total number of refugees already exceeds 350,000, with thousands more on the way. And it will do little to ease the most pressing crisis in the Balkans: the political instability of Kosovo's neighbors, which threatens to turn a civil war into a regional disaster. Albania, the poorest country in Europe, has an exceptionally weak Government. The northeast, where the refugees are arriving, is the most undeveloped part of the country. The water and electricity supplies are erratic, and the roads are in terrible condition. How can Albania support refugees who continue to flow in at a rate of some 1,500 an hour, bringing sickness and disease with them? Montenegro, which along with Serbia is all that remains of the Yugoslav Federation, is also in a precarious situation. The presence of refugees is likely to erode support for the republic's embattled President, Milo Djukanovic. He has been pursuing a pro-Western policy and is the only source of real opposition to Milosevic in the region. But NATO's decision to bomb targets in Montenegro as well as in Serbia has swung popular support toward Milosevic, who has already removed Yugoslav officers suspected of sympathizing with Djukanovic and replaced them with Serb hard-liners. However, it is in Macedonia that the arrival of refugees for a lengthy stay could have the most catastrophic consequences. Since its birth as a nation in 1992 this tiny land-locked country has been racked by internal conflict, with ethnic Albanians pitted against Macedonians, who are Slavs. In addition, Macedonia remains the strategic hub of southeastern Europe, the only territory through which it is possible to cross the Balkan Mountains by land from north to south and east to west. As Otto von Bismarck, the 19th-century German Chancellor (who held the Balkans in contempt), once said, "Those who control the valley of the River Vardar in Macedonia are the masters of the Balkans." That analysis is still true today. Macedonia's ethnic Albanians, who make up 25 percent of the population, live mainly in the west, which borders on Albania and Kosovo. There is also a large concentration in the capital, Skopje, however, and in the years before Communism fell, these people's treatment at the hands of Macedonia's Communists was worse than that of their neighbors in Kosovo. But since achieving independence, the Macedonian Government has recognized that the Albanian minority must have greater rights and freedoms to insure stability. So every recent Macedonian Government has included several Albanian Cabinet members and made strides toward addressing Albanian grievances, including improved schools and the right to local self-governance. Nonetheless, there is considerable ethnic strife. Ordinary Macedonians view their Albanian neighbors as an implacable fifth column, scheming to create a greater Albania, and resent even the smallest concession to the Albanians. Albanians, in turn, see Macedonians as part of a Slav plot to crush Albanian culture. The Kosovo Liberation Army commands great respect among young Albanians. When Albania collapsed into chaos in 1996, the army's weapons depots were looted and many small arms, especially the rocket-propelled grenades called Kalashnikovs, were smuggled into western Macedonia. The Government of Prime Minister Ljupco Georgievski is dominated by moderate Macedonian nationalists. While it is hostile to any attempts by Serbia to undermine stability, the Government is also aware that in times of crisis many Macedonians look to Serbia for protection against what they see as an Albanian threat. The perception among Macedonians that NATO is acting as the K.L.A.'s air force is also driving popular opposition to the bombing of Serbia. In contrast to the claims of some in the West, the Macedonian authorities are not restricting the flow of refugees into their country out of a cynical disregard for their suffering. Macedonians are genuinely worried about the impact the refugees may have on the country's fragile domestic order. The presence of so many extra Albanians may well radicalize Macedonian nationalism and Albanian separatism, increasing the likelihood of war. NATO did not cause the exodus of Albanians from Kosovo. Still, its actions have worsened the problem. All NATO members -- not just the few countries that have come forward so far -- are morally obligated to accept the great majority of refugees from Kosovo, because the small Balkan countries simply cannot cope with them. Sheltering the refugees would not serve the Serbs' brutal program of ethnic cleansing, as some have suggested. Most Albanians will eagerly return to Kosovo at the earliest opportunity. But the political imperative is as pressing as the moral and humanitarian one. If war breaks out between the Macedonian and Albanian communities in Macedonia, President Clinton's main reason for approving the NATO campaign -- to keep the conflict from spreading -- will have failed. Misha Glenny, the author of "The Fall of Yugoslavia," is completing a history of Balkan nationalism. ****************************************************************************** *
[PEN-L:5108] Canadian from Macedonia
ts99u-2.cc.umanitoba.ca [130.179.154.225] Sun, 11 Apr 1999 11:55:58 -0500
