> BLS DAILY REPORT, FRIDAY, APRIL 30, 1999:
>
> Today's News Release: "Employment Experience and Other Characteristics of
> Youths: Results from a New Longitudinal Survey" indicates that more than
> half (57 percent) of youths participate in some type of work activity
> while age 14, and nearly two-thirds (64 percent) work at some point while
> age 15, according to a new survey from BLS. work, as defined in the
> survey, can include "employee" jobs, in which youths have an on-going
> relationship with a particular employer, such as a restaurant or
> supermarket, and/or "freelance" jobs outside the home, where the youths is
> doing tasks such as babysitting or yard work. These findings are from the
> first round of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, a
> nationally representative sample of 9,022 young men and women who were 12
> to 16 years of age on December 31, 1996. The survey provides information
> on employment experiences, schooling, family background, social behavior,
> and other characteristics. The release focuses on four aspects of the
> lives of these youths, who were ages 12 to 17 when interviewed in 1997:
> overall employment, employment while in school, educational experiences
> and home characteristics.
>
> Private industry compensation costs in the first quarter of 1999 grew at
> the slowest rate since BLS began publishing this seasonally adjusted data
> in 1982, Labor Secretary Herman says. "The report implies an absence of
> inflationary pressures on employers." Compensation costs -- wages and
> salaries plus benefits -- as measured by the employment cost index slowed
> in the first quarter after a 0.7 percent gain in the last 3 months of
> 1998. Analysts voice surprise at the mild 0.4 percent increase in
> compensation costs and private industry wages and salaries in the first
> quarter (Daily Labor Report, page D-1).
> __Despite tight labor markets almost everywhere in the country, labor
> costs are rising so modestly that they are putting virtually no pressure
> on most firms to raise prices, says John M. Berry, writing in The
> Washington Post (page E1). The good news for workers was that even with
> only a 3 percent gain in compensation -- wages and salaries were up 3.3
> percent and the cost of benefits up 2.3 percent -- they stayed well ahead
> of inflation, since consumer prices were up only 1.7 percent over the same
> period. The report caught many financial analysts off guard. Most had
> been expecting an increase for the first quarter of twice the size of that
> reported.
> __Despite declining unemployment and a shortage of workers in some
> industries, wage and benefit increases slowed markedly in the first 3
> months of the year, the government reported today. Its broadest gauge of
> compensation, the employment cost index, rose just 0.4 percent in the
> first quarter. The quarterly increase -- the smallest since the index was
> created in 1982 -- was half what economists had been predicting, and
> showed that compensation growth has now slowed for two consecutive
> quarters even as joblessness has declined to a 29-year low of 4.2 percent
> (The New York Times, page C1).
> __The U.S. economy continues to defy textbook economics as the pace of
> wage growth slows, despite an every-tightening labor market. The slowdown
> in pay reported by the employment cost index, "is very surprising. I
> don't think anybody has a good answer," said an economist for Harris
> Bank/Bank of Montreal, who like many economists had been expecting a jump
> of 0.8 percent. One popular theory is that the U.S. is now fully enjoying
> the cycle of low inflation: with prices stable for so long, workers' wage
> demands are no longer pumped up by fears that escalating prices will erode
> their paychecks. "We've seen a decline in the measured rate of inflation,
> which may be lowering inflation expectations" (The Wall Street Journal,
> page A2).
>
> New claims filed with state agencies for Unemployment Insurance benefits
> fell by 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 294,000 in the week ended April
> 24, the Employment and Training Administration of the Department of Labor
> has announced. The decline reverses the spike in claims over the prior 2
> weeks and confirms strength in the labor market, according to economists
> at Donaldson, Lufkin and Jenrette (Daily Labor Report, page D-15).
>
> Shortages of skilled labor intensified, the demand for goods strengthened,
> and profit margins continued to shrink in the first quarter of 1999,
> according to a survey released by the National Association of Business
> Economists. "NABE members believe the overall economy will advance
> solidly during the first half of 1999," NABE President Joel Frankken said.
> "Helped by a fledgling turnaround in Asia, even the manufacturing sector
> shows signs of strengthening. Profit margins, however, remain squeezed
> from above by fiercely competitive pricing and from below by labor costs
> that are rising faster and material costs that are falling slower than 3
> months ago." Frankken, the chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers in St.
> Louis, said profit pressures are likely to continue, especially in the
> goods-producing sector. But overall, NABE panelists were more optimistic
> about the economy now than they were 3 months ago. While they still
> expect a slowdown from the 6 percent pace of gross domestic product growth
> in the fourth quarter of 1998, they now predict the growth rate will be 2
> to 3 percent, instead of the 1 to 2 percent rate they expected when they
> were surveyed in January. Nearly 60 percent of respondents said their
> firms had trouble finding skilled labor in the first quarter, while only
> 12 percent reported difficulties filling unskilled positions (Daily Labor
> Report, page A-11).
>
> Conference Board's Help-Wanted Index dropped 4 percentage points in March,
> signaling a dip in job growth. The index in March declined to 88 percent
> from its 1987 base year, and was lower than the 92 percent level seen 1
> year ago. "The Help-Wanted Index has fallen to the same level as last
> December," Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein said. "the question
> is whether this is a 1 month aberration, or a change in trend that many
> have been anticipating" (Daily Labor Report, page A-7)
>
> New home sales showed surprising resilience in March, as robust gains in
> the West offset declines in other parts of the country. The Commerce
> Department said sales of new single-family homes last month rose 2.1
> percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 909,000. The increase
> follows a 2 percent decline in February; sales that month were revised
> upward to 890,000 from 851,000. That may explain why manufacturing and
> construction industry executives are practically skipping into spring,
> with high hopes for a productive and profitable second quarter, according
> to surveys by Dun & Bradstreet (The Wall Street Journal, page A2).
>
> Students are moonlighting as Web page consultants, network administrators
> and computer programmers, a trend driven by a job-skill shortage and
> teens' comfort with technology. Some have even earned enough to skip
> college, invest earnings or hire their own employees. The Department of
> Labor estimates that the number of people ages 16 to 19 employed in the
> computer and data processing industry went from 5,000 in 1994 to 29,000
> last year. Several factors are behind the increase: 1. A skill shortage;
> 2. The rise in home computers; 3. Many teens want to work; 4. Teens are
> getting tech training.
>
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