"How Real is the Secular Decline in Poverty in India?"
BY: MUNGILA H. SURYANARAYANA
Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research
(IGIDR)
Document: Available from the SSRN Electronic Paper Collection:
http://papers.ssrn.com/paper.taf?abstract_id=238516
Date: June 12, 2000
Contact: MUNGILA H. SURYANARAYANA
Email: Mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Postal: Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR)
Gen A.K. Vaidya Marg Santoshnagar
Goregaon (East)
Mumbai, Maharashtra 400065 INDIA
Phone: +91-22-840 0919
Fax: +91-22-840 2752
ABSTRACT:
Solution for any problem calls for its proper assessment and
estimate. Polices, both macro and micro, for providing
safety-nets for the poor in developing countries like India are
often formulated with inadequate appreciation of empirical and
methodological aspects. As a result factually incorrect
assessments of the problem and its magnitude are made, which
lead to wrong choice and design of instruments and policies.
This issue is examined with reference to India. There is a
consensus that incidence of poverty with reference to the
calorie intake criterion has declined since the mid-1970s to
about 35 per cent of the population. The study examines how far
this consensus is valid? How far the database is suitable for
such assessments? What are its implications for the observed
trends in poverty estimates in the context of dynamic structural
changes in the rural economy? The study concludes that the
estimates do not show a real reduction in poverty but only a
reduction in overestimation of poverty for the initial years
followed by its underestimation for the later years. Even today
about 75 per cent of the population is calorie deficient largely
due to income poverty. This calls into question the choice of
policy measures to reduce fiscal deficit by restricting welfare
programmes and poverty alleviation measures only to the
population currently believed to be poor.
--
Michael Perelman
Economics Department
California State University
Chico, CA 95929
Tel. 530-898-5321
E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]
