Mark Weisbrot sent me this.
In March the World Bank released a paper, "Growth Is
Good for the Poor," by Bank economists David Dollar and
Aart Kraay. If you went to the research section of the World
Bank's web site between March and September, you would
find that paper as the Bank's most prominently displayed
research product.
Last Friday we discovered that the paper can no longer
be found on the World Bank's web site. A search by either
author's name turned up numerous papers, but not this one.
Some intervening events: on August 7 CEPR released
a critique of the Dollar and Kraay paper ("Growth May Be
Good for the Poor-- But are IMF and World Bank Policies
Good for Growth?" (www.cepr.net)). Among other things, we
showed that the data as well as the regressions carried out by
Dollar and Kraay did not support most of their main
conclusions: e.g. that "globalization is good for the poor
(p.22)," and that "anyone who cares about the poor should
favor the growth-enhancing policies of good rule of law, fiscal
discipline, and openness to international trade." (p27).
On August 24, Dean Baker and I attended a seminar at
the IMF, with some 80 people, at which Drs. Dollar and Kraay
presented their paper. We raised our main criticisms at the
seminar, and they basically agreed. For example, they
conceded that their own research could not be used as
evidence that globalization or increased openness to trade
benefits the poor. On the question of anti-inflationary policy,
they noted that only inflation rates of more than 40 percent
could be said to be generally harmful to the poor. (This is
important because IMF policies often impose harsh austerity
policies to reduce inflation when it is at much lower levels).
And even on the question of whether the income of the
poor tends to grow with overall income (which is certainly
true as a general, long-run trend) they conceded that there
were numerous and important exceptions, and that the data
could not show that these exceptions were unrelated to
globalization or other policy changes in recent decades. Dr.
Kraay was particularly forthright and honest about the paper,
noting at one point that they "could just as well have titled it
'Growth Is Good for the Rich.'"
The Dollar and Kraay paper was originally released in
draft form, and so it is quite possible that it will re-appear.
Still, there are numerous working papers on the Bank's web
site, and this one has received a good deal of attention from
the press, often as a rebuttal to critics of globalization or the
IMF/WB's policies.* So it is unusual to see it removed from
the Bank web site. And it is likely that if it does re-surface, it
will not make the same sweeping claims, which were taken up
by various defenders of current policy.
Mark Weisbrot
*See e.g., the Economist May 27, 2000; Financial Times,
April 12, 2000 (p.23); Daily Telegraph (London) June 9,
2000. Just last Thursday (Oct. 5) ExxonMobil ran an ad on
the New York Times op-ed page, citing the paper in its lead.
Name: Mark Weisbrot
E-mail: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Co-Director
Center for Economic and Policy Research
1015 18th Street NW, Suite 200
Washington, DC 20036
Phone (202) 293-5380 x228
Fax (202) 822-1199
(202) 333-6141 (home)
www.cepr.net
--
Michael Perelman
Economics Department
California State University
Chico, CA 95929
Tel. 530-898-5321
E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]
