Los Angeles Times, October 13, 2000, Friday, Home Edition
Stimac, the economist, said Serbia already is "in a very deep social
crisis," with a rising death rate and a sharp increase in suicides and
crime after a decade of war, sanctions and misrule by Milosevic. It is hard
to predict what will happen if Kostunica can't deliver, he said.
"We are worried," Stimac said. "I wouldn't give us more than one week or 10
days, but it is very hard to say. People are very angry. For 10 years we
have been subjected to these inhuman policies from outside, and inside as
well."
Threats of labor action are already coming from unionized workers at the
Belgrade Water Supply Co., run by the city government, which is allied with
Kostunica. They are demanding to be paid overdue wages by today.
One of the ways Milosevic tried to buy support among his impoverished
people was by using price controls to keep down the cost of basic foods
such as milk and cooking oil.
But when Kostunica supporters forced out most managers in state-owned shops
and factories and put their own people in charge, that system of controls
collapsed and prices immediately shot up. The cost of cooking oil has more
than tripled since last Friday, when Milosevic announced that he was
stepping aside.
Serbia's economic crisis is further complicated by one of Kostunica's first
successes: the stabilization of the currency, the Yugoslav dinar.
Under Milosevic, when people managed to save anything from their meager
wages and pensions paid in dinars, they usually converted it into German
marks so they didn't have to watch the value plummet by the day.
Hours after Milosevic's regime collapsed, Kostunica's coalition took
control of the national bank's payments section, and the value of the
Yugoslav dinar suddenly went up 28% against the mark. The stronger dinar
took a huge bite out of the mark-based savings--and thus the purchasing
power--of many people just as prices were shooting up.
Even with the old price controls, which caused widespread hoarding and
black-marketeering, the cost of fruits and vegetables rose 22.5% from
August to September as Milosevic fueled inflation by printing money to pay
for war reconstruction.
The prices of sugar and cigarettes are about to jump again. After
Kostunica's supporters forced out Milosevic-era factory directors, the new
ones are moving quickly to make their plants more profitable.
During meetings with Kostunica in recent days, European diplomats have
promised to send emergency supplies of heating oil, cooking oil and sugar,
Stimac said, but added that he didn't know when they would start arriving.
"I suppose very soon, in a very few days," he said, conceding that many
street protesters who backed Kostunica expect to see improvements
immediately. "I think people can wait one or two more days. They've been
waiting 10 years."
Louis Proyect
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