Re: Re: Re: Progressive Information Aggregation Institutions?

[Jim Devine]

At 09:57 PM 11/02/2000 -0500, you wrote:
>Let's say I want a probability estimate right now of the chance Bush will win.
>What specific library or conversation should I go to get get a better estimate
>than I could find at Iowa Electronic Markets?

can't it be said that the chances are 100% that Bush will win, since Gore 
(and the whole "new Democratic movement" of the Democratic Leadership 
Council) has morphed into Bush?

That may be a little extreme, but it suggests that the "Iowa Electronic 
Markets" are extrapolating trivia.

Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] & http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~JDevine