Michael,
I agree that the Supreme Court fear is probably
overdone. It is pretty clear that the actual outcomes of
Supreme Court appointments by any president are very
hard to forecast. Impact on lower levels of the judiciary
are another matter, however.
Also, although I think that Bush has a terrible enviro
record, I suspect that he would be cautious about doing
anything too off the wall, although presumably there would
be oil drilling in the Alaska Arctic Wildlife Refuge and forget
about any efforts to follow up on the Kyoto Accords,
although those may be dead anyway with the attitudes one
finds in Congress, even by liberal Dems. And Gore has to
prove that he didn't really mean what he wrote in _Earth in
the Balance_, which will make him not much of an enviro.
Personally, the two areas where I think some really
unpleasant stuff might go down, but only if there is a clean
sweep by the Repugs of both houses of Congress as well
as a Bush victory, are on social security and on labor union
rights. It is not surprising that Gore is now leading big time
in Florida and will almost certainly take it. Bush declared in
Glen Ellyn yesterday that "social security is not a federal
program." Yes, we would get privatization with ultimately
probably a wrecking of the system.
On labor, besides making it much harder to organize,
there would probably be a forbidding of unions funding
political candidates. Campaign finance reform, Bush style.
I would expect some serious other anti-union moves, maybe
even a national right-to-work law. May come down to Dem
filibusters in the Senate to block the worst stuff, which may
work as long as they have at least 40 there. Hey, maybe
that need that old pecker of a filibusterer Strom back!
Anyway, I'm all for Nader trader. Given the huge Bush
lead here in Virginia, I have no problem making a statement
by voting for the Ralph. So, maybe somebody out there in
Mad City, Wis can vote for Gore now....
Here's my more precise early bird call on what to make
of those first-to-be-announced results out of Kentucky. Given
that it is strongly leaning Bush, if Bush takes it with more than
an 8-point margin over Gore, he will definitely win. If his margin
is less than 2 points, he will lose. In between, we shall have to
wait and see if Bush can take either Pennsylvania or Michigan
to offset the likely Gore win in Florida.
For control of the House, watch the Northrup vs Jordan race
in the Louisville third district. Northrup is an endangered but not
too endangered Repug. If Jordan wins, the House will go Dem.
If Northrup wins by more than a 5-point margin, the Repugs will
definitely win the House. In between, well, it will get down and
dirty and go on all night, if not longer....
Barkley Rosser
-----Original Message-----
From: Michael Perelman <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: Friday, November 03, 2000 11:02 AM
Subject: [PEN-L:3902] Supreme Court
>I've been thinking about the rationalization for voting for Gore based
>on the Supreme Court. With the Bush administration, it's possible that
>the Democrats might actually behave like an opposition party -- not
>likely but possible. They might holdout for someone better than
>Ginsburg or Breyer.
>
>Besides, with the coming slowdown Bush might have trouble holding on to
>any popularity.
>
>Apropos of nothing, a friend of mine that the gym told me that he
>usually both Republican, but he's so disgusted with the parties that his
>voting for Nader.
>
>----
>Michael Perelman
>Economics Department
>California State University
>Chico, CA 95929
>
>Tel. 530-898-5321
>E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]
>
>
