Neither Labour nor the Conservatives fielded big names to comment on the three by-election results last night. In the event Labour did not do nearly as badly as they probably feared. Labour still has not lost a by-election for the whole of this parliament. Although the votes were markedly down, so were those of their main opponents, Conservatives in England, and Scottish National Party in Scotland. The Conservative vote was not more enthusiastic than the Labour vote. In both cases the swings against Labour were about 10%. If this represented a general election now Labour would lose its massive 179 majority altogether but would just be ahead with seats in the House of Commons. This contrasts with Labour having an 8% lead in the opinion polls. The turnout in Scotland, with the extra interest in the Scottish Assembly parallel vote, was 38%. In the two English consituencies it was about 28%. The undemocratic rule, a relic of royal prerogative, that the prime minister can name the election date, give the governing party an additional advantage. The results last night confirm the likelihood that there will be an election on 3rd May 2001. New Labour has lowered the temperature of politics through technical expertise, but lowered the opposition's enthusiasm as well as that of its own supporters in comparable measure. It is getting out enough of its supporters to be able to win. The Conservatives have not been able to take advantage of any decisive issue like the petrol tax revolt, or Europe, to make a breakthrough during the pre-election period. Although Blair was probably stung into counter-attack on Europe this week and will try to keep off the subject nearer the election, it is only a small minority who feel passionately about it and they already vote Conservative anyway. New Labour has won the middle ground for the centre-left. It has an image of sound finances, and a broad inclusive image, lost by the Conservatives. It is respectable to vote Labour. Although two by-elections had left socialist parties getting 5-7% of the vote, in a general election a proportion of these would come back in behind Labour in a first past the post race. The swing against Labour was less than the 20% in Leeds, and the 16% in Tottenham. The consensus of commentators was that there is nothing in these results to deter Blair from calling a general election for May. Chris Burford London
