For some reason, Eudora labels this as a "flame" (marked with two flame
icons). Modern technology!
At 05:30 PM 11/26/2000 +1000, you wrote:
>Bewdy! I'm always happiest when we're predicting doom. So who's read
>Robert Shiller's *Irratyional exuberance*? He reckons shares are the last
>place to put your pension money - that when the bubble goes we're in for a
>decade of depression; and that we're in the worst bubble ever (lotsa stuff
>on the charts of the 1901, 1929 and 1966 'booms' and ensuing droops), with a
>DJI up 200% in five years as opposed to real personal income and GDP
>increases of 15% and a corporate profit increase of thirty.
>
>Strikes me as just the sort of thing that'd make baby-boomer punters
>nervous. A lot of them won't have the time to ride this droopy decade,
>after all. If they did pull out (and they're a mightily significant
>demographic for the next fifteen years), that'd make a big difference. The
>question which occurs is, if these people were to take their dough out of
>the share markets, is there anywhere for 'em to put it? Shiller wants a
>host of new investment products out there quicksmart, so punters can hedge
>their asset values, come the bear charge. Which implies there ain't too
>many options right now.
>
>So have we a sustained bubble because there's nowhere else to put people's
>retirement money? And wouldn't that militate against institutions offering
>hedging products? And how would Bush's social security plan play out on
>this underlying question mark (he wants to stick public funds on the
>markets, no?)? And, should he become president, wouldn't the republican
>Houses pass his plan? And wouldn't that all combine to feed the bubble for
>another few years, or would people just take the appreciations after that
>big inflow, and then get outa town before the fans hit the shit?
>
>Irksomely full of questions, I know, but the West's demographics, the Shrub
>in the white House, combined with a long-blown bubble, fragile national
>accounts, and unprecedented personal debt - well, it does look like one
>helluva confluence of portents, doesn't it?
>
>Oh, and how do the bear-grunts of a personal friend of the sainted Alan
>Greenspan, with impeccable Ivy League credentials, play in the US business
>media?
>
>Cheers,
>Rob.
Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] & http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~JDevine
