On Sun, 3 Dec 2000, Rob Schaap wrote:
> - a serious slump in consumer sentiment in Europe;
> - a serious slump in corporate pricing power in Europe;
> - the Asian Tiger economy recovery is stalling;
Consumer sentiment has dipped a bit, but has stayed high in the EU; order
books look pretty good and profits are quite healthy (the low euro has
meant surplus-profits for exporters, too). Also, Japan is growing, albeit
slowly, and the tigers plus China are continuing to do well. Some parts of
the chip biz are slowing, but it's a relative, not yet absolute, decline.
The US is overdue for a recession, of course, but interest rates and
fiscal policy in the EU and East Asia remain decidedly stimulative; the
Fed could cut rates in a hurry to contain a Bubble blow-out. I still think
we're headed for a long upwave, punctuated by centibillion-euro bailouts
and a delightfully vicious bear market in US equities. On the other hand,
it *would* be nice to see Strasbourg-approved NATO peacekeepers occupying
America's polling booths, to supervise a program of massive electoral
reconstruction.
-- Dennis
