Share prices in Taiwan and South Korea are
way down also. In Taiwan this may be more a
matter of politics. In South Korea it includes
such elements as the Washington-approved
bustup of the Daewoo chaebol, with its auto
firm now shut down, part of the general global
retrenchment in the auto industry.
Barkley Rosser
-----Original Message-----
From: Rob Schaap <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: Sunday, December 03, 2000 9:12 AM
Subject: [PEN-L:5410] Re: Three Little Bears
>G'day Dennis,
>
>>Consumer sentiment has dipped a bit, but has stayed high in the EU;
>
>The September stat for France was spectacularly low (haven't got one for
>October). And low prices in Europe, given a low Euro, indicate low pricing
>power, don't they? And why'd that be?
>
>> and the tigers plus China are continuing to do well. Some parts of
>>the chip biz are slowing, but it's a relative, not yet absolute, decline.
>
>Well, you wouldn't think the Tigers were doing at all well to look at their
>sharemarkets and currencies. The Philippines is in the toilet, but the
rest
>of 'em have their governments very worried just now. I can't get to the
web
>from here (not in less than the half-hour it takes for each graphics page
to
>unfurl, anyway), but there's a lot of talk about this at the moment,
Dennis.
>
>>The US is overdue for a recession, of course, but interest rates and
>>fiscal policy in the EU and East Asia remain decidedly stimulative;
>
>I thought they were being pretty tight on interest rates? Duizenberg'd
have
>to be scared of that droopy euro of his, wouldn't he? Not too much room
for
>manouvre there, I'd've thought.
>
>>Fed could cut rates in a hurry to contain a Bubble blow-out.
>
>Only as long as foreigners (responsible for more than eight per cent of
Wall
>St values - at a rate of $1.5 billion per day) keep feeding the greenback.
>If they find cause to go elsewhere, well, then Greenspan'd have a dollar to
>protect, wouldn't he? And that kinda limits the rate-cut option.
>
>>I still think we're headed for a long upwave, punctuated by
>centibillion-euro bailouts
>>and a delightfully vicious bear market in US equities.
>
>So you're with the likes of Thurow? He reckons you can take hundreds of
>billions out of the stock markets without hurting the economy. But better
>than 20% of households are into those markets up to their necks - and not a
>few of 'em on margin call, too. With consumer debt the way it is, it
>wouldn't take much to start a credit crunch from there.
>
>>On the other hand, it *would* be nice to see Strasbourg-approved NATO
>peacekeepers occupying
>>America's polling booths, to supervise a program of massive electoral
>reconstruction.
>
>Be lovely. So are my reservations as unlikely a scenario as that?
>
>Cheers,
>Rob.
>
>
