Dear Friends,

First of all, let me say hello to all of you. I recently joined PEN-L as I discovered 
it only a
short while ago, basicly after Michael P.  forwarded to me a few e-mails from this 
list. This
appears to be a high volume list and I must confess I find it difficult to follow your 
pace but to
the extent I can follow the flow, I enjoy the quality of your discussions and the 
topics covered.

It is my view that the disintegration of Indonesia is coming closer by the day and 
soon we will
witness an unpleasant economic (and social) turmoil in Southeast Asia, originating 
from Indonesia.
Of course, South Korea and Taiwan are also contenders in this originating game, and 
obviously,
Japan's deepenning troubles doesn't help the region (and beyond) much either. 

The following Reuters piece from today is about the sad developments in Indonesia. It 
feels as if
the whole world is in flames.

Best,
Sabri Oncu

+++++++++++++


Indonesian minister warns of nation's demise-paper
By Joanne Collins

  
JAKARTA, March 12 (Reuters) - A senior Indonesian minister has warned that the nation 
is on the
brink of collapse and sought the quick resolution of security and leadership issues, 
local media
reported on Monday. 

"This uncertainty will have a severe impact, not only on the political front but also 
in our
economic, social and security fields," the Jakarta Post newspaper quoted chief 
politics and
security minister Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono as saying. 

Yudhoyono said last month's formal censure of embattled President Abdurrahman Wahid by 
parliament
was not only a blow to the Muslim cleric but the entire government. 

"Quite honestly, with the issuance of a memorandum by the House of Representatives 
against
President Abdurrahman Wahid, the credibility of Gus Dur has decreased, which directly 
or
indirectly has effected the credibility of the government," he added, referring to 
Wahid by his
nickname. 

Indonesia's mountain of problems grew late last month when the island of Borneo 
erupted into
ethnic violence that killed hundreds. 

Dayaks in central Kalimantan launched a slaughter of immigrant Madurese, killing 
almost 500
immigrant -- beheading many -- and forcing about 50,000 to flee. 

The savagery broke out when Wahid was on a two-week overseas trip and he refused 
demands to return
home. 

Violence in the restive northern province of Aceh is also building with security 
concerns blamed
for the closure of key gas and oil operations at the weekend. 

Indonesia's volatile politics, combined with communal bloodshed and shaky economic 
growth have
played havoc with the country's jittery financial markets and left many foreign and 
local
investors sidelined. 

On Friday the rupiah hit 10,130 against the dollar -- its lowest in 29 months -- as 
local
companies rushed to buy dollars amid growing gloom about the country. 

The currency has lost around 25 percent of its value against the dollar in the past 
year. 

Hundreds of students are expected to hit the streets of central Jakarta on Monday 
demanding
Wahid's resignation and protesting a planned hike in fuel prices. 

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