Questions to Mark: I am trying to understand your point on oil. I came to a conclusion, which I think is certain:
Those who say not to worry about oil reserves 'cause "we" have oil reserves for 50 or 60 years are making a fantastic and childish "error" (I suspect it is something worse). Why? They mean that "we" have 50 or 60 years to adapt, but they are wrong: they are supposing that "we" can go on producing and using oil at the present rate for 50 or 60 years, and then oil disappears all of a sudden and will be substituted by something else. "We" have not 50 years to adapt, because at some point in the near future, oil production will become increasingly difficult so that it can not deliver the same physical supply. In other words, physic oil reserves would last for a lot more than 50 years, but oil production would not suffice for the needs. So, they are contributing to propagate a _false assessment of oil scarcity_ , which _validates the theses of their opponents_: meaning that markets don't reflect the physical scarcity of base natural products. Expectations are wrong. Their soothing arguments belie themselves. The market doesn't adapt gradually to the situation of the reserves. Is this important? Yes, it is. Our society is structured around oil. Everything or almost runs on oil. You can't change this structure in a whiff of the hand. It takes many many years. [Five Arabs are cleaning five windows of the building in face of me. Strange ballet in strange times.] Well, so, we will go through a lot of turbulence. That is certain. The thing which is not certain is the degree of the turbulence. I don't understand the rationale behind the logistic curve, and the logistic curve itself. Does it say that the oil production reaches its peak when half of the reserves have been used? Where can I find an thorough explanation of this logistic curve? Another question. The only instance where this rule had an opportunity to be used was the US oil production. But can one extrapolate from the US case to take account of the world production? Oil production in the US followed the logistic curve predictions, but US oil could be substituted by cheaper oil from elsewhere. That is not the case with world production. I mean, we could have something between the logistic curve and the 50 years of the optimists. Non conventional oil could be put to use, aso. "We" would have some more time to adapt. Which doesn't change the basic problem but could make the prospects less catastrophic. Manel _____________________________________________________________ Sign up for FREE email from TimorLeste.net at http://www.timorleste.net
