The US has made clear that its policy is one of "regime change"
(=overthrowing Hussein) whether the Iraq allows inspectors in or not. For
this reason he probably believes that there is no point in letting
inspectors in to spy again and allow identification of targets for
subsequent bombing. However I don't see why Hussein does not stall and go
through the motions of negotiating a return of inspectors at the very least.
Perhaps he might even be able to negotiate something acceptable. As long as
there is a hope for a diplomatic solution it would seem there would be much
less unity and support for the US position of regime change.
The danger from Al-Qaida in the US has been wildly exaggerated it seems
to me. Not one cell has been found in the US. There have been no significant
terrorist attacks in the US since 9/11 with the possible exception of the
anthrax attacks but even they seem not directly related to Al Qaida. It
seems that if Al-Qaida existed in significant numbers in the US there would
have been more terrorist activity than there has been. But what happens when
the terror war is extended to countries that may actually have the capacity
for significant retaliation. Is the Bush administration sure that Iraq is
unable to retaliate using bio-weapons etc. The most dangerous feature of the
present war on terrror is the overwhelming hubris of the US. I just hope
that Iraq is not resigned to the US attack and is preparing to show what the
cost might be. There seems to be almost no discussion of Iraq's capabilities
except insofar as they might impact Israel.
Cheers, Ken Hanly
March 11, 2002
FBI fails to expose al-Qaeda networks
By Daniel McGrory
THOUSANDS of FBI agents have rounded up more than 1,300 suspects across
America since September 11, but they have failed to find a single al-Qaeda
cell operating in the United States.
Tom Ridge, the Director of Homeland Security, admitted yesterday that he
suspected that there were active cells in the US, but he could not explain
why none had been caught.
"I think we should assume and we should operate under the notion that some
still are in the United States," he said.
Security authorities in more than 60 countries have arrested suspects linked
to Osama bin Laden, but none of the hundreds detained has yet been found to
have any links with terrorism.
Only two of the top 20 most-wanted al-Qaeda suspects are known to have been
caught or killed: Mohammed Atef, third-in-command to Osama bin Laden, died
in a rocket attack on Kabul; and Anas al-Liby, a computer expert who lived
in Manchester and is said to have helped to compile al-Qaeda's terrorist
training manual, has been arrested. No one in the American military or
intelligence services knows where bin Laden is.
While the British and other governments accept that many of their young
Muslims travelled to Afghanistan for training in al-Qaeda camps, the only
American accused of following that path is John Walker, "the American
Taleban" who is facing trial in Washington.
Mr Ridge marked the six-month anniversary of the terrorist attacks on New
York and Washington by announcing that there would be a new national threat
alarm system based on a five-level colour code.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Sabri Oncu" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: "PEN-L" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sent: Monday, March 11, 2002 12:42 PM
Subject: [PEN-L:23826] Crude Oil Rises as Concern of U.S. Attack on Iraq
Increases
> Top Financial News
>
> 03/11 12:55
> Crude Oil Rises as Concern of U.S. Attack on Iraq Increases
> By Mark Shenk
>
>
> New York, March 11 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose 3 percent after
> Iraq said it will bar United Nations arms inspectors, raising
> concern that the U.S. might use military force against the
> Persian Gulf producer to force compliance with UN rules.
>
> Iraq's refusal to allow inspectors to return after a three- year
> absence coincides with U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney's trip to
> Europe and the Middle East to seek support for the war on terror.
> An attack would threaten Persian Gulf shipping and halt exports
> from Iraq, which pumps about 3 percent of world supplies.
>
> ``An attack on Iraq is looking more likely all the time,'' said
> Chester Irvin, a crude-oil broker at ABN Amro Inc. in New York.
> ``You are seeing a war premium being built in.''
>
> Crude oil for April delivery rose as much as 71 cents to $24.55 a
> barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have gained 22
> percent this year and are close to the 5 1/2-month high of $24.75
> a barrel reached Thursday.
>
> Prices still were down 12 percent from levels before the Sept. 11
> terrorist attacks on the U.S.
>
> In London, Brent crude oil for April settlement rose as much as
> 72 cents, or 3.1 percent, to $24.05 a barrel on the International
> Petroleum Exchange.
>
> Iraq, which President George Bush named along with Iran and North
> Korea as members of an ``axis of evil,'' will be the subject of
> talks during Cheney's 10 days of meetings, a senior
> administration official told reporters.
>
> Bush has accused Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein of developing
> nuclear, chemical and biological weapons and using some of them
> against his own people. Allowing UN arms inspectors into Iraq to
> search for such weapons was part of the cease-fire agreement that
> ended the Persian Gulf War in 1991.
>
> Military Force Possible
>
> ``Bush will eventually say to the Iraqis, `Let the weapons
> inspectors in or else face the consequences,''' said Adam
> Sieminski, a global oil analyst at Deutsche Banc Alex Brown in
> Baltimore. ``I am convinced we would use military force if
> pushed.''
>
> Oil prices also rose after workers at Venezuela's state oil
> company Petroleos de Venezuela SA called for a work slowdown to
> reduce productivity at the company. OPEC-member Venezuela was the
> fourth-biggest source of U.S. imports in December, according to
> the U.S. Energy Department.
>
> About a hundred representatives of the oil company's workers met
> Sunday and vowed to convert the work slowdown to a full strike if
> the government doesn't remove five directors. The workers say the
> directors were appointed for their loyalty to Venezuela President
> Hugo Chavez and aren't qualified to run the company, El Nacional
> newspaper reported.
>
> A strike would have an immediate impact on Venezuela's 2.5
> million barrels a day of oil production if unions join in the
> work action as promised, analysts said.
>
> Gasoline Imports Threatened
>
> ``This is a big deal because you have the white collar and blue
> collar workers united against the government,'' said Bill
> O'Grady, director of fundamental futures research at A.G. Edwards
> & Sons Inc. in St. Louis. ``A disruption in Venezuela isn't only
> important because of their crude oil exports, they are also a big
> source of U.S. gasoline imports.''
>
> The rally in crude oil has already pushed up prices at the pump.
> U.S. retail gasoline rose an average of 2.8 cents to $1.144 a
> gallon in the week ended March 4, the Energy Department reported
> last Monday. Crude oil costs account for 36 percent of retail
> prices, according to department estimates. The next retail
> gasoline report is due after futures trading today.
>
> Gasoline for April delivery rose as much as 2.79 cents, or 3.6
> percent, to 79.6 cents a gallon on the New York exchange, the
> highest price since Sept. 19. Prices have surged 39 percent so
> far this year. Futures represent wholesale prices.
>
> OPEC Meeting
>
> The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries wants to see
> oil prices between $22 and $28 a barrel, United Arab Emirates Oil
> Minister Obeid bin Seif al-Nasseri told CNBC today. Prices slid
> to a two-year low after the Sept. 11 attacks cut air travel and
> worsened a U.S. recession.
>
> An index of oil prices monitored by OPEC was quoted at $21.87 a
> barrel last on Friday. The price fell as low as $15.85 on Nov.
> 19. OPEC oil ministers will meet this Friday in Vienna to discuss
> oil production.
>
> Chakib Khelil, Algeria's oil minister, said he is ``very
> confident'' OPEC will extend oil output cuts into the second
> quarter before loosening the spigot as demand grows toward the
> end of the year.
>
> Russia, Norway, Mexico, Oman and Angola agreed in December to
> take 462,500 barrels a day off the market starting Jan. 1, while
> OPEC promised a 1.5 million-barrel cut in its quotas. The
> targeted reductions equaled about 2.5 percent of daily world
> supply.
>
