Economist.com A divided Iran
Iran in turmoil Jul 19th 2002 >From The Economist Global Agenda The long conflict between conservative hardliners and reformers in Iran is escalating, with conservatives trying to exploit widespread anti-American sentiment to bolster their position, and reformers warning that, if the hardliners continue to block change through the institutions they control, there could be widespread chaos IT WAS meant to be a set-piece of xenophobic fervour, using that old favourite enemy, the Great Satan. On Friday July 19th, thousands of Iranians took to the streets of Tehran chanting "Death to America, death to George Bush". The conservatives in Iran have been under attack of late, and demonstrations are usually a good way to distract from the failings of the Islamic republic, such as the dire poverty afflicting this once-rich nation. President George Bush obliged the hard-liners once again, urging Iran on July 12th to abandon "uncompromising destructive policies," and it was in response to these remarks that the demonstration was called. Even though Muhammad Khatami, the country's moderate president, dutifully joined the country's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in condemning Mr Bush's remarks, it is the religious conservatives who thrive on the Bush administration's hostility. However, the charge that it is the theocracy itself that is holding Iran back will not be swatted away as easily as that. There have been ongoing clashes between reformers and conservatives ever since the reformers first won an election victory five years ago. This week there have been growing signs that the reformers are losing patience with the ayatollahs who have stymied reform, using their control of the courts, in particular, to suppress dissidents and to close newspapers. On July 17th, Muhammad-Reza Khatami, the brother of the president, and himself leader of the biggest reform party, the Islamic Iran Participation Front, warned that the country could slide into chaos if the hardliners continued to block the political change that the people had voted for, and if they continued to try to silence their opponents. In his remarks to his party's annual conference, Mr Khatami warned of a popular uprising and also threatened that the party would quit the government and parliament in protest against the lack of freedom in the country. Mr Khatami said that democratic reforms were best, adding "But if they [hardliners] stall reforms, then only two choices remain: dictatorship or uprising." His party would take part in neither course: instead, "we will leave the establishment." The front, many of whose members hold senior government positions, occupies more than 100 seats in the 290-seat parliament, where Mr Khatami himself is vice-speaker. The party also controls the ministries of labour, education, energy, agriculture and communications, while another prominent party member is Mohsen Mirdamadi, who is chairman of the important National Security and Foreign Policy Committee. Mr Khatami's remarks come against a backdrop of hardening resistance to change on the part of the hardliners and the fraying patience of those who are demanding it. On July 10th Ayatollah Jalaluddin Taheri, a popular cleric, wrote an excoriating public letter damning "our betters"-a reference to the ayatollahs in government-who, he claimed, compete to steal the wealth of the nation and the "fascist" thugs under their command. He also resigned from his influential position as leader of Friday prayers in the central city of Isfahan. In response, conservatives moved to silence him. The media were ordered to refrain from commenting on Mr Taheri's letter. Norooz, a reformist paper that may shortly be shut down, left several columns blank in protest, but conservative newspapers ignored the ban on reporting, choosing to take a dig at Mr Taheri instead. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the conservative supreme leader, replied to Mr Taheri, warning that "efforts to weaken the edifice of the system" would not be forgiven. To the disappointment of many, Mr Taheri then signed an interview this week describing the supreme leader as a "comrade" of reform. The entire incident was unsettling for both sides. Reformers were left in no doubt about how far the conservatives, who still hold ultimate power, will go to silence criticism. But conservatives could not ignore the fact that there was growing dissension even in the ranks of the clergy. The reformers fear that they will be barred from running in elections in 2004 and some increasingly feel that the only move left open to them is to boycott public life. The president, Mohammad Khatami, hinted that he was considering quitting public life last year in the run-up to his resounding re-election victory in protest at conservative obstructionism. The day after Mr Taheri's letter was published, Abbas Abdi, a radical reformer, challenged Mr Khatami to make good his threat. The belief that the hardliners are about to crack down even harder on the reformers is widespread. Emrooz, a new reformist website, claims that the conservatives plan to "eliminate" both the front and the Islamic Revolution Mujahidin Organisation, a left-wing party. This belief has been given credence by the pronouncements of the conservative press. One hard-line daily paper chillingly claimed that "Cutting these people's hands from the system's facilities, positions and media is the basic condition to make the country's political atmosphere healthy." And Ayatollah Ali Meshkini, a conservative prayer leader in Qom, declared the left-wing party to be "lacking in religious legitimacy". But even in the face of an impending conservative crackdown, reformers are beginning to lose patience. Hashem Aghajari, an academic and reformist politician, has been summoned to court to face charges on "insulting Islamic sanctities" during a speech made last month in which he compared the imitative reverence of some Shi'a Muslims for senior clerics and the mimicry practised by monkeys. Mr Khatami, the president, who is a cleric and who is not in favour of secularisation in Iran, has publicly disapproved of Mr Aghajari's comments, if somewhat elliptically. But Mr Khatami's more cautious approach is losing support. Both conservatives and mainstream reformers claim public support. But their prolonged stalemate, which has stood in the way of much-needed changes, has embittered political life in Iran and is destroying the credibility of both. As frustration grows, wilder and fiercer voices from both sides may get a hearing and the conflict between them may become more than a matter of speeches, letters, and anti-American demonstrations. Copyright � The Economist Newspaper Limited 2002. All rights reserved.
