Here is another article detailing some of the preparations in the Gulf area for an attack. It seems that the forces will be ready to attack soon, but of course that does not mean that it will necessarily happen soon. Perhaps Bush will wait for better political weather conditions.
Cheers, Ken Hanly Strike plans against Iraq move ahead Despite debate, US readies gulf military bases By Anthony Shadid and Robert Schlesinger, Globe Staff, 8/18/2002 WASHINGTON - Despite internal divisions and the president's insistence that he has made no decision on military action against Iraq, the Bush administration has stepped up its military planning for an invasion, the rhetoric to justify it, and a diplomatic campaign to prepare for the potentially messy aftermath, administration officials and analysts say. Speculation about the timing of a military operation remains rife among diplomats, the Iraqi opposition, and within the administration itself. But even without a date - and US officials insist that the decision to attack Iraq has not been made - the pieces are gradually being put into place for an invasion. ''This kind of planning and looking at assessments in case we should do it is absolutely going on, and I see no change in that whatsoever,'' said Phebe Marr, a specialist on Iraqi affairs who testified in Senate hearings this month and who advised the first Bush administration during the Gulf War. ''The more you plan,'' Marr added, ''the more things fall into place, the more you look at difficulties, and the more prepared you are to say, `OK, it's the third of December or whatever.''' Some analysts suggest that the planning represents a ''slippery slope,'' making it more difficult to turn back after each incremental step toward war. That sense appears to have alarmed opponents of military action, even within Republican circles. Echoing concerns of key members of Congress, Brent Scowcroft, national security adviser under President George H.W. Bush, warned in an opinion article Thursday in the Wall Street Journal that an attack might jeopardize and perhaps even destroy the administration's antiterrorism campaign, as well as unleash a wider war between Israel and Arab states. ''I think we're very much sliding into confrontation,'' said Laith Kubba, an Iraq expert at the National Endowment for Democracy in Washington. ''We're all sliding into it. The clock is ticking very quickly toward a confrontation.'' Despite leaks of possible war plans, the Pentagon has insisted that movement of troops and equipment in the region is routine. But commercial satellite imagery has shown that between January and June, the US military quietly expanded Al-Udeid Air Base in the Persian Gulf country of Qatar, complete with a 13,000-foot runway to handle heavy bombers. The photographs also appear to show hardened aircraft shelters, a sophisticated command and control center, and a tent city to house thousands of troops in the sun-scorched terrain. Analysts point out that the base could be an alternative to facilities in Saudi Arabia, which has said it would not allow its territory to be used to launch a strike against Iraq. General Tommy Franks, who heads US Central Command, has said the base is being developed for ''times of crisis.'' John Pike, head of GlobalSecurity.org, a military policy organization, said the United States also has positioned equipment for two divisions in the Mediterranean, Persian Gulf, and South Pacific regions that can be moved with relatively little notice to Kuwait, which neighbors Iraq. The tiny Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia, where the US military keeps supplies and a listening post, has enough equipment for an army brigade and a marine brigade, with three brigades forming a division. The marines also have equipment for one brigade on ships in the Mediterranean and for another on ships anchored at Saipan in the Pacific, Pike added. The Army also has equipment for a brigade in Kuwait and for another in Qatar, he said. If President Bush gave the order to attack on Nov. 6, the day after this year's election, ''you could have all of the hardware and all of the troops for a four-division assault force ready to go in Kuwait by Thanksgiving, and they could be in Baghdad by Dec. 7,'' he said. The US military confirmed last week, one day after denying it, that it had contracted for a pair of commercial cargo ships to move helicopters and other military equipment from its European Command area to the Central Command area. That region stretches from Egypt to Afghanistan, an area that includes Iraq. The military described the movement through the Red Sea as routine. Al-Hayat, a leading Arabic newspaper based in London, reported this month that US forces were overseeing the renovation of an air strip in Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq. The work began two months ago, the newspaper said, quoting witnesses and truck drivers supplying the facility, and included the installation of radar and electronic equipment. The CIA refused to comment, and the Pentagon denied that such work was under way. Much of the preparation could be interpreted as a way of giving weight to the administration's threats, rather than preparation for war. Iraqi opposition officials have acknowledged that anything they hear from the administration on military action is probably disinformation, designed to keep Saddam Hussein, Iraq's dictator, off balance. And few dispute that Iraq, in recent weeks, seems to be taking seriously the administration's preparations. Senior US officials have insisted that while no decision has been made to attack Iraq, Hussein should be overthrown. That case was most forcefully made by Condoleezza Rice, the national security adviser, in an interview with the BBC last week in which she called Hussein ''an evil man'' and insisted that ''there is a very powerful moral case for regime change.'' ''We certainly do not have the luxury of doing nothing,'' she said. Less noticed are statements on what shape a post-Hussein Iraq will take. The Iraqi opposition groups, with US support, signaled their backing for a federal structure, a way to assure Kurdish autonomy in northern Iraq without fracturing the country. The State Department has begun laying out its vision as well. Explicitly rejecting the idea of Hussein being succeeded by another leader from the military or ruling Baath Party, even one subservient to US interests, it has said it will seek a democratic Iraq, one that ''no longer threatens its neighbors, reuounces the development and possession of weapons of mass destruction, and maintains the territorial integrity of the country.'' The most public sign of the administration's preparation is its courting of the long-fractured Iraqi opposition. In past months, work was hampered by divisions among the CIA, Pentagon, and State Department over a strategy of engaging the opposition. Splits were apparent as recently as June. But in meetings last week, both sides appeared to have set aside many of their differences. The administration pledged support for an opposition conference of 50 to 70 people that the groups say they aim to convene next month in Europe, possibly in the Netherlands. >From that, opposition officials say, they hope to set up a coordination committee that could form the basis of a transitional administration. ''Whereas previous conferences were to unite the opposition and its activities, this has to be regarded as a first step into Iraq in terms of administering a post-Saddam Iraq,'' said an opposition official based in London. The State Department has undertaken its own effort in planning for what would follow the fall of Hussein. The topics addressed so far include questions of justice, amnesty, and war crimes with members of Hussein's government, as well as postwar economic and budget planning. By next month, groups of five to 15 people will begin looking at issues of public health, humanitarian work, agriculture, water, the environment, and democratic principles. The initial project, at a cost of $1.5 million, will wrap up work by late October or early November, officials say. The plans that ensue can be put into place almost immediately after Hussein's fall, officials say. While deep anxiety persists over the prospect of an invasion from senior levels of the State Department on down, there is a consensus that the effort can make the aftermath more manageable, a lesson Washington learned from experiences in Afghanistan, Kosovo, East Timor, and elsewhere. ''Anybody who knows the region knows that nothing's guaranteed,'' a US official said. ''There's no sure thing. We can make every preparation, have the most dedicated and dynamic people, have the whole international community behind it, and it's still unpredictable. ''I think the more we prepare, the better effort we make, and the more support we get around the world, the better the chances are to make something good come out of this,'' the official said. ''But who knows?'' This story ran on page A1 of the Boston Globe on 8/18/2002. © Copyright 2002 Globe Newspaper Company.
