NYT December 26, 2002
Growing U.S. Need for Oil From the Mideast Is Forecast
By JEFF GERTH
WASHINGTON Dec. 25 - As President Bush seeks to reduce American
reliance on oil imported from the Persian Gulf, new government
studies predict that in two decades the West will be even more
dependent on oil from Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern producers.
Mr. Bush, asked a week ago on the ABC News program "20/20" about the
importance of Saudi Arabian oil, said that "we must have an energy
policy that diversifies away from dependency" on foreign sources of
oil - including some that "don't like America."
Late last month, the Department of Energy's Energy Information
Administration forecast that in 2025 the majority - 51 percent - of
world oil production would come from the Organization of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries. About two-thirds of OPEC production,
in turn, emanates from the Persian Gulf. The Energy Information
Administration, or E.I.A., says OPEC now produces 38 percent of the
world's oil.
The information administration projects that Saudi Arabia will need
to produce 22 million barrels a day by 2020 to meet increased world
demand, far in excess of its current production of about 8 million
barrels.
"We're going to rely more and more on the Middle East markets for
oil," said Fatih Birol, the chief economist for the Paris-based
International Energy Agency, or I.E.A. The group's recent World
Energy Outlook, which estimates energy markets through 2030, mirrors
the forecast of the American energy agency.
Government and industry oil experts widely agree that it makes sense
for the United States to diversify its sources of energy. It is also
possible that in the next decade increased oil from the Atlantic
Basin and the Caspian Sea could make a short-term dent in American
dependency on the Middle East.
"Our dependency on the Persian Gulf could take a slight dip before it
goes up," said John Brodman, the deputy assistant secretary of energy
for international energy policy. "But the basic geological fact of
life is that 70 percent of the proven oil reserves are in the Middle
East."
The importance of Saudi Arabia to long-term oil markets is different
from its ability to produce extra oil quickly - an ability sometimes
referred to as surge capacity. If oil markets were disrupted by a war
in Iraq or strikes in Venezuela, only Saudi Arabia could increase its
production within a few months to fill the gap.
The new forecasts highlight a fundamental quandary facing the United
States: American dependence on Saudi oil limits the strategic options
of the United States even as relations between the United States and
Saudi Arabia have been strained since the attacks on Sept. 11,
2001....
<http://www.nytimes.com/2002/12/26/international/middleeast/26SAUD.html>
--
Yoshie
* Calendar of Events in Columbus:
<http://www.osu.edu/students/sif/calendar.html>
* Anti-War Activist Resources: <http://www.osu.edu/students/sif/activist.html>
* Student International Forum: <http://www.osu.edu/students/sif/>
* Committee for Justice in Palestine: <http://www.osudivest.org/>
