Tuesday evening, London

Today Tony Blair side-stepped the challenge at question time in the House of Commons with the strong-sounding but actually ambiguous statement that what the British forces in the Middle East would do, would be legal. Likewise the Bush administration affirmed they would make a substantial contribution.

BUT yesterday the British Government's legal advisor, the Attorney General, Lord Goldsmith, spent much of the afternoon at 10 Downing Street when Tony Blair was there. Today the British government claimed such advice is never made public. But the leader of the peace party, Charles Kennedy, is putting a letter in writing asking for the legal advice to be made public.

Because by an accident of timing, or the onward march of world history, the International Court of Justice has just opened at the Hague, and Britain, unlike the US, is fully signed up to it. One of the principles is that subordinates as well as leaders may be tried. British Tommies could be guilty of war crimes, if they fireball Iraqi troops without lawful justification. Unfair isn't it?

Is these legal niceties trivial? The existence of bodies of armed men is central to the role of the state. The structure of law which regulates and gives role to these armed men is also central. It must appear to stand on the basis of a justice that is accepted as transcending the sectional interests within the state (including class of course, expecially when somehow the state seems to assume the inevitability of continued oppression and exploitation)

Without agreeing all aspects of Hardt and Negri's book on Empire, its opening chapter appears relevant at this moment.

"The birth of the United Nations at the end of the Second World War merely reinitiated, consolidated, and extended this developing international juridical order that was first European but progressively became global. The United Nations, in effect, can be regarded as the culmination of this entire constituitive process, a culmination that both reveals the limitations of the notion of international order and points beyond it toward a new notion of global order."

The global aspirations of Tony Blair, both grandiose and masochistic at the same time, require him and British officials to crucify themselves at this moment in New York on this crux. They are running around increasingly desperate, trying to engage countries like Angola who are temporarily flattered into thinking they might be decisive, with formulas that at present they can circulate only in the name of the United Kingdom. While the overwhelmingly biggest nation on the block makes clear it appreciates this and other initiatives very much but is quite happy to go it alone without UN backing, thank you very much.

The admirable BBC 2 Newsnight programme (available on the web)  has just reported on the basis of sources "close to" the Attorney General - a formula usually understood to include the person in question. -

The Attorney General might just possibly not have given a definitive opinion but might have gone through the arguments for and against. The Attorney General might have indicated the need for significant caution, but at the end of the day, the client, Tony Blair could say, thank you very much for the advice. And still go to war.

At lunch time today lawyers for the peace movement noted that the Attorney General could be in a position of having to resign. But just at the moment Blair is avoiding any talk about resignations by retaining in his cabinet Claire Short despite her having said three times on Sunday that he is reckless.

What of the legal arguments? The tide is running strongly against the government.

1441 is difficult to use as the sole justification of war, not least because the US ambassador in arguing for it in November said explicitly that it implies no automaticity to war. So Jack Straw's claim today that it is sufficent justification looks weak and contradictory, if the Brits are still humiliating themselves desperate for a second UN resolution.

Even if they get a bare majority Blair's notion that he could ignore a veto which he happened to think is unreasonable would have no basis in international law, even if he thinks it would win allies in the court of world opinion.

However to attempt to get another resolution and to fail, could subsequently make the aggressor's legal position even weaker than it would otherwise have been.

So lawyers sympathetic to the British government suggest that 1441 may not be sufficient on its own BUT there are other UN SC resolutions such as 678 and 687 which refer to things like using all necessary means to ensure peace and international security in the area, and disarmament.

However the peace lawyers point out that these were passed in the context of Iraq's invasion of Kuwait and do not continue to stand for more than 10 years as enduring statutes of an international legislature justifying war under all circumstances.

One of the most authoritative critics of the British government's threadbare legal position is Vaughan Lowe, professor of international law at Oxford. Although he thinks it is improbable, he said, (???) that the UK government would appear before the new International Court of Justice, he noted how very carefully governments may be wise to record the justification for their actions these days. For example in the case of the Kosova war, which was done outside the United Nations, the British Government carefully recorded its view that the overwhelming humanitarian justification for the war was that hundreds of thousands of people were being driven from their homes and murdered (his paraphrase).

So who can be sure where this will all end up? Poor General Pinochet did not expect to be put under house arrest for years when he came to convalesce in a London hotel while awaiting medical treatment. Blair's grandiosity may have a masochistic streak and he is a verbally skilled lawyer, but he is well aware that case law can take different directions according to the legal expert in court at the time. Put on trial himself he might not necessarily get off.

And in current English case law there is increasing emphasis on the idea that while force may sometimes be lawful it must be proportionate only to the need. (A farmer got put in prison after killing a thief.) This may not worry the lynch posse unilateralists around Bush, but it just might make it wiser for Britain to contribute its peace keeping troops rather than its combat troops when it comes to  the outbreak of war.

Another question which Blair did not get pinned down on today, but which is latent.

Why all this muddle? The weakness in Blair's idealistic vision of world governance with him as president of a multilateral world, Gordon Brown fully occupied as chair of  a liberal International Monetary Fund, and Alistair Campbell in charge of world communications, is that it will not come about as a result of a smooth and steady evolution in the direction of progress. It will come about because of and through the class of contradictions and not despite them. And with different persons as the human containers of world history.

This is a formative legal crisis, and it is close to stripping the US of any long term possibility of willing aggressive allies except when the war is sanctioned explicitly by the United Nations. Blair's brief contribution to the development of world history may be to sacrifice himself on the crux of this contradiction.

Chris Burford
London




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