Saddam Hussein's defence is essentially political. It is hard to judge the war from the opening salvos - a failed assassination attempt - but Bush may not just be window dressing in saying that the war more be more stretched out than people have supposed.It is interesting that he tried to avoid the word "war".
If Saddam launches a counter attack it may be mainly for a political purpose - to send body bags back to the USA. His basic political position is that this is an unjust imperialist war and that the suffering of the Iraqi people will be the responsibility of the aggressors. While using shock and awe, are using psychological warfare, and are likely to try to take the country piece by piece. Entry into Baghdad may be delayed, with a lot of new about the plight of the population. The political battle will be about who is more humanitarian, and there may be initiatives by the United Nations at various moments in the war, calling for a ceasefire and a political compromise.
The peace movement will evolve in the face of these politics and military tactics. While the internationalist spirit of being against your own ruling class is a positive prejudice, defence of national sovereignty of all states, is not the sum total of a progressive position. I do not think it is sustainable on a world scale, although I recognise some people would base their position on this. The battle on the security council has not been about intervention or non-intervention - it has been about the timing and the proportionality of the force and pressure used to intervene. It has been a defeat of hegemonism, not of intervention.
We will see how the peace movement responds and evolves, and we can each make our personally minuscule contribution to the debate. Peace now, or Cease fire now, may remain the main slogans, but a purely pacifist position will isolate the movement from its wide hinterland, and so I suggest would a campaign based mainly on a rearguard defence of national sovereignty. Propaganda and education is already there but needs to broaden into a movement that is not defeated and demobilised by a hegemonic victory, but campaigns for a wider peace and justice in the middle east and in the whole world.
IMHO
Chris Burford London
