The BBC interviewed Michael McGinty, defence analyst from the ultra respectable Royal United Services Institute and former Royal Navy officer. Studiously impartial and reasonable in tone, his report was interesting from the point of view of probable dominant official UK perspectives on the war. About the explosion causing over 50 deaths in Baghdad he pointed out that over 1000 missiles have been fired. [only?] The worst error rate for Tomahawk missiles going astray was 7%. This was almost certainly a cruise missile, so he said, the error rate is obviously better than that. He did not project that into a civilian casualty figure per month. [The BBC showed footage of the casualties and pointed out that they had been broadcast all round the Arab world.] Although an Iraqi missile was technically a possible cause there is no evidence of the Iraqi's firing anti-aircraft missiles during the air-raids. About effect on morale in Baghdad he said that life has to go on, including even football games and there is perhaps some sort of blitz spirit in the city "in the way we had in 1940" [thereby subtly identifying with the Iraqis]
Concerning the delay in the ground attack on Baghdad, McGinty said this sort of delay is very common. Amateurs talk of strategy; professionals talk of logistics. True that the guerilla attacks have been more than anticipated. All these things are what Clausewitz called 'friction'. War is a political activity that uses military means.
The possibilities of an Iraqi uprising are very unlikely before Saddam goes. With past failures to support Iraqi uprisings the anti-Saddam forces will not risk this. He referred to Tony Blair's image last night of there being a "membrane" over Iraq preventing the allies getting through to the Iraqi people, a membrane consisting of the Republican Guard and the fedayeen, as "incredibly naive". This was a throw away remark not a polemical attack on the prime minister, whom he conceded is an international politician, but in a way all the more damning for that as a serious analysis. McGinty argued that the issues holding Iraqi society together involve a much more complex interplay of factors.
This was the amiable informed conversational voice of someone who could discuss with the highest levels of British military thinking!
Chris Burford London
