Thank you Michael for your amazingly astute comment. I will try to take this logical illustration to heart, self-critically. Post-fectum rationalisations of past behaviour (justification or apology) are an important problem in the theory of ideology and learning theory. The answer is not to abolish a concern with the past, but approach it correctly.
J. ----- Original Message ----- From: "Michael Pollak" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Sent: Thursday, July 31, 2003 9:59 AM Subject: [PEN-L] Dr. Norman C. Rasmussen, 75, Expert on Nuclear Power Risk, Dies > [This just seems like a monument to cognitive dissonance to me. This guy > invented a way of appraising nuclear risk. A mere four years later, it > was proved spectacularly wrong. The result: cook and rerun the numbers > until in retrospect they come out perfect. Then give him an award for his > "contributions to nuclear safety." And title his obituary "Expert on > Nuclear Power Risk." Expert on risk? He was the expert on how not to > estimate risk.] > > [Even under his original, in retrospect absurdly sanguine estimate, if > there were 500 reactors in the world -- and there are currently 440 -- > you'd be expecting one core meltdown on average every 40 years. And this > Rasmussen and the industry considered a warrant for expansion so that > they'd happen more often than that!] > > [Meanwhile under the revised estimate, which was cooked to account for > 3-Mile Island, you'd now be expecting one every 2 years -- which is > obviously just as completely untrue as the original estimate. Which seems > to indicate that not only were revised figures shamelessly cooked to fit > one case for which we knew the answer, but the method itself is a complete > and utter fraud, since it's never given anything even close to the right > answer yet.] [Tellingly, both he industry continued to advocate nuclear > power even under the new figure, which would have testified to certifiable > madness if they actually believed it.] > > [For this he received the Enrico Fermi award, one of the oldest and most > honored awards in the nation (sez MIT of itself). And goes to his grave > hailed as an expert on estimating risk. Because fault tree analysis must > be true. Because otherwise we'd have to admit the existence of radical > uncertainty.] > > [If Nero was alive today, he wouldn't name a horse a counsul. He'd > appoint him an expert. And everybody would listen respectfully.] > > New York Times > July 28, 2003 > > Dr. Norman C. Rasmussen, 75, Expert on Nuclear Power Risk, Dies > > By MATTHEW L. WALD > > N orman C. Rasmussen, a former professor of nuclear engineering at > the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who pioneered a > technique for measuring risk at nuclear power plants, died on July > 18 at a nursing home in Concord, Mass. He was 75. > > The cause was complications from Parkinson's disease, his son, > Neil E. Rasmussen, said. > > In 1975 Dr. Rasmussen oversaw the production of a landmark report, > the 21-volume Reactor Safety Study, sponsored by the Atomic Energy > Commission, a precursor of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The > report predicted that in power reactors in this country, a core > damage accident would occur only once in every 20,000 years of > operation, with one reactor running for one year counting as a > year of operating experience. > > But after the partial meltdown of the Three Mile Island 2 reactor > in Pennsylvania in 1979, when the nuclear industry in this country > had fewer than 500 years of operating experience, a new study > ordered by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission reassessed the risk > and estimated it at one meltdown per 1,000 years of reactor > operation. > > The commission disavowed some of the findings of the Rasmussen > study. But it continued to embrace his technique, now known as > probabilistic risk assessment, which involved drawing up a "fault > tree" to trace how problems can spread through a plant when a > piece of equipment fails. Among the problems with the Rasmussen > study were that it overlooked some risks, like fires, and that it > was based on reactor designs that did not include the Three Mile > Island type. > > Dr. Rasmussen was a professor of nuclear engineering at M.I.T. > from 1958 until 1994, and was in charge of the institute's nuclear > engineering department from 1975 to 1981. In 1985, the government > presented him with the Enrico Fermi Award for his "pioneering > contributions to nuclear energy in the development of > probabilistic risk assessment techniques that have provided new > insights and led to new developments in nuclear power plant > safety." > > Born in Harrisburg, Pa., Dr. Rasmussen served in the Navy from > June 1945 to August 1946 and graduated from Gettysburg College in > 1950. He received a Ph.D. in physics from M.I.T. in 1956. > > In addition to his son, of Concord, Mass., survivors include a > daughter, Arlene R. Soule, of Littleton, N.H.; five brothers, > Frederick, of Moorestown, N.J., Howard, of Charlotte, N.C., > Holger, of Penn Valley, Calif., John, of Columbus, Ohio, and > David, of Clarksville, Va.; and four grandchildren. > > Copyright 2003 The New York Times Company | Home | Privacy Policy > | Search | Corrections | Help | Back to Top >
