comments: the question about the "political business cycle" theory at this point does not concern the Bushwackers' intentions. Rather, it's about their ability to spark an election-year boom (delaying the hitting of the fan by the shit until 2005). Their friend Alan at the Fed doesn't have much ability to stimulate the economy any more, since it's hard to cut the Fed Funds rate below 1%. The government's fiscal policy is very weak, since it targets the rich (whose spending plans don't change much with income or even wealth). The main thing is engineering a fall in the dollar, which as Goldner points out encourages inflation. But the dollar's fall also means a fall in the Chinese yuan, so that a lot of the usual benefits of promoting US exports and limiting US imports won't happen. There's also the J-curve effect, which will delay any positive effect on the US balance of trade.
BTW, the Fed Funds rate is NOT "the rate at which the Fed lends to banks." That's the discount rate, which moves in step. ------------------------ Jim Devine [EMAIL PROTECTED] & http://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine > -----Original Message----- > From: michael [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] > Sent: Wednesday, November 05, 2003 6:34 PM > To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > Subject: [PEN-L] Loren Goldner on the economy > > > Pause In The Crisis or Beginning of a New Boom? > > By Loren Goldner > > On Oct. 30 the U.S. Department of Commerce announced > that the U.S. economy had grown at a 7.1% annual rate > in the third quarter of 2003. Since these statistics > are constantly being revised, one wonders what they > really mean (the "productivity miracle" of the second > half of the 1990's almost disappeared in retrospective > downward revisions after the March 2000 dot.com > crash). > Whatever the case, is clear that the Bush > administration is pulling all stops in its re-election > strategy for 2004. One does not have to believe in a > "political business cycle" to recognize that the U.S. > government has sufficient tools to pump up the economy > going into an election year. Most notorious in the > history of this strategem was Nixon's 1971-1972 > reflation based on wage-price controls, the "reform" > of the Bretton Woods system (amounting to a 32% > surcharge on foreign imports and massive (for the > period) deficit spending) to assure his 1972 > re-election, after which inflation took off, the > Bretton Woods system collapsed, and the U.S. and the > world plunged into the deepest economic downturn to > date (1973-1975) since the 1930's. Of course Nixon was > dealing with long-term trends that pointed far beyond > his election strategy, but the aim of the "political > business cycle" is to have the shit hit the fan > immediately after the election, allowing maximum > political flexibility to "Do Something" after > consolidating political power. > What is indisputable is that there was a three-year > (2000-2003) "bear market" in the U.S. and world stock > markets in which trillions of dollars of paper value > disappeared, and a "mild recession" which, again, > appears mild based on dubious statistics that are > constantly being manipulated for political ends. The > official unemployment rate of 6% during the 2001-2003 > period does not include the 1% of the U.S. population > in prison, nor the people who have entirely dropped > out of the labor market, nor people who are working > part-time (as little as a few hours per week) who > would like to work full-time. With these parts of the > population included, the real rate of unemployment has > been estimated at roughly 11%. In reality, 2.7 million > jobs have disappeared in the U.S. economy since 2000, > and there has been little upturn so far in employment > figures. > It is equally clear that from January 2001 onward, > Greenspan and the Federal Reserve bank were looking at > the possibility of a full-blown deflationary crash, > following the end of the high-tech boom (in which it > was discovered, for example, that 98% of the > fiber-optic cable laid in the preceding years would > never be used). The Federal funds rate (the rate at > which the Fed lends to banks) came down in lockstep > fashion from 6% to 1% by June 2003. To this must be > added the Bush tax cut for the rich (approximately > $200 billion per year) and the rapid increase in the > Federal deficit (estimated at $375 billion for 2003) > from the balanced budget achieved (with some creative > accounting) in the last years of Clinton (it is > somewhat hilarious to see the Democrats now attacking > the Republicans for large-scale deficit spending). > Finally, the post-2002 decline of the dollar (30% > against the euro, 10% against the yen) is aimed at > making U.S. goods cheaper overseas, which so far has > not begun to curb the $500 billion annual U.S. > balance-of-payments deficit, but which should in short > order result in inflation in the U.S. by increasing > the cost of imported goods. In the meantime, the U.S. > must borrow $1.5 billion per day to cover this > deficit, and is currently taking 40% of world savings. > The minimum estimate of $2 trillion of foreign > indebtedness ($10 trillion held by foreigners offset > by $8 trillion of U.S. assets abroad) means that total > U.S. foreign debt is already 20% of GDP, a level > typical of a Third World country. Already 1% of U.S. > GDP is going to pay off the interest on foreign-held > debt. > The current wave of euphoria that the 2000-2003 bear > market is over is based on these (and other) paper > indicators of an expansion that has not yet altered > any of the fundamental crisis trends of earlier years, > but is rather based on all the expansion of liquidity > mentioned above. For all the late 1990's hype about > the "New Economy" and the high-tech "revolution", it > seems that the health of the U.S. economy still > depends on the willingness and ability of Americans to > buy houses and cars on credit, exactly like 40 years > ago. Third-quarter corporate profits in the U.S. > generally "look good", but as "Austrian school" > commentators such as Richebacher have pointed out, > they are generally based the success of layoffs and > downsizing by U.S. corporations. The basic strategy of > loosening credit has succeeded in driving the debt of > U.S. "consumers" to all-time highs, starting with the > ingenious mechanism of mortgage refinancing, putting > hundreds of billions of dollars of spending power into > the hands of the middle class, based on the ongoing > (but currently topping out) nationwide housing bubble. > This bubble, like the dollar bubble, will follow the > earlier high-tech bubble into collapse, leaving > millions of people with bloated mortages to pay off. > The hope of Greenspan and Bush was that greater > consumer spending would keep the economy alive until > corporate spending on capital plant kicked in, the > classic pattern of previous emergence from recession > since World War II. However, with U.S. firms > operating at 75% of capacity, and still working their > way out of the indebtedness of the boom years, this > capital spending has not emerged, and neither has any > significant upturn in hiring of workers. One of the > best indicators of a lack of capitalist confidence in > the current upturn is the rapid rise of some basic > commodity prices (another parallel to the 1971-73 > reflation), led by gold, which has increased by 20% in > 2003. > It is now essential to turn to the international > dimensions of the U.S. "recovery", which are still on > the margins of mainstream perception in the U.S. > itself. Fifteen years ago, the main imbalance in the > international economy appeared to be between the U.S. > and Japan: Japanese goods were conquering the U.S. > domestic market, and U.S. dollars were accumulating in > the Bank of Japan. Today, the focus is increasingly on > the imbalance between the U.S. and China, as the > latter is remaking the international division of > labor. The basic "engine of prosperity" for years has > been Asian exports to the U.S. in exchange for dollar > reserves. It is estimated that China, Japan, Taiwan > and South Korea alone hold over $1 trillion, and most > of that money is recycled into U.S. capital markets > (such as U.S. government debt) to make possible even > greater credit expansion and thus consumption in the > U.S. itself. Like Europe in the 1950's and 1960's, the > Asian industrial powers are allowing the U.S. to > finance its deficits with its own IOUs. Similar > trends, though not on the same scale, are still > visible today with European and OPEC holders of > dollars. > This centrality of the dollar in the world economy is > the main enigma to be unraveled to clear the way for > understanding future possibilities for accumulation. > The dollar has been in "crisis" since ca. 1958, as the > Bretton Woods system began to come unstuck, and it has > survived the collapse of that system (1971-73) and > three decades of an outright "dollar standard" (in > contrast to the former "gold-exchange" standard of > 1944-1971). During this period, U.S. industry has > been down-sized, outsourced and hollowed out. With the > emergence of China, even maquiladora plants on the > U.S,.-Mexican border are relocating to Shenzhen. > Foreigners have been subsidizing U.S. deficits for 45 > years as the price for access to the huge U.S. > domestic market. Counter-trends to an abrupt decline > of the dollar to date include foreign direct > investment in the U.S. (in part to circumvent the > possible protectionist backlash advocated by some > sectors of U.S. industry as well as some sectors of > organized labor), and the repatriation of profits from > the still-considerable U.S. assets abroad. But no > amount of qualifying the extent of U.S. economic > decline since the 1950's can conceal the increasingly > fictitious character of the U.S. economy as a whole, > propped up by foreigners as "too big to fail". One > indicator shows this trend better than any other: that > of "Tobin's Q", the bourgeois concept expressed in the > ratio of current value of total capital assets to > their cost of replacement today. One study shows this > ratio fluctuating around 1 for the entire 20th century > up to 1995, with obvious deviations below 1 (the > depressed, deflationary 1930's) and above 1 (the > inflationary boom years of the 1960's and 1970's). > >From 1995 to 2002, Tobin's Q for U.S. capital assets > increased to the staggering level fo 2.11. The credit > making this possible was largely extended by > foreigners. > Such an increase is contemporary with the similar > rise of the dollar in the same years, following the > cheap dollar of 1985-1995. Foreign investment in > dollar assets after 1995 was a "virtuous circle" in > which considerable profits (e.g. the stock market > mania) were supplemented by a steady rise in the > dollar itself. Beginning in 2000, the virtuous circle > turned into a vicious circle, with collapsing stock > values interacting with a declining dollar, so that a > foreign investor was losing at both ends. By 2002, > foreign direct investment in the U.S. had turned > negative, and the head of the European Central Bank > Wim Duisenberg wondered out loud if the "inevitable" > decline of the dollar would be a gradual retreat or a > global panic. > But this is as far as "economics" alone will take us, > and it is essential to look at the "politics" in the > critique of political economy to understand to what > extent the U.S. will succeed in making the rest of the > world pay for its decline and crisis. Success or > failure here will in part determine the length of the > current U.S. "job-loss" recovery. > The fundamental problem for U.S. capitalism is to > globally circulate the mass of fictitious capital > (most immediately embodied in that $2 trillion > external debt) that has built up over 45 years of > subsidized dollar hegemony, making possible that > capital's valorization by extracting an adequate > amount of surplus value. (We are not even considering > here the unknown trillions tied up in the global > derivative markets and hedge funds.) This is the key > to U.S. foreign policy, which is aimed at breaking > down all remaining barriers to such extraction. It > has accomplished this through the neo-liberal policies > of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, > bleeding dry four billion people in 80 Third World > countries. It has accomplished this by the opening of > the former Soviet bloc and its vast natural resources > to unprecedented looting, provoking (in the Russian > case alone) the biggest peacetime demographic > contraction in modern history. It has accomplished > this by the opening of China, whose economy, after 20 > years of 8-10% annual growth, is now in danger of > "overheating" from its absorption of so many surplus > dollars. It has accomplished this through NAFTA, the > free trade zone with Canada and Mexico, and now > intends to extend this zone to all of Latin America. > U.S. policy is now knocking at the doors of the > remaining trade blocs, Europe and the Asian industrial > powers, which present some obstacle to the kind of > neo-liberal looting of assets through "corporate > governance" which in the U.S. itself produced the > meltdown of the post-2000 period. The U.S. gained > important advantage through the Asian crisis of > 1997-1998, forcing open South Korea and other > countries for "reform". (Current studies estimate that > 3.3 million service jobs will migrate from the U.S. to > India by 2015, making that country, along with China, > a further source of loot.) The U.S. has gained a > strong foothold throughout Eurasia, with troops from > Georgia to Uzbekistan (and Poland and Rumania agreeing > to U.S. bases) with a policy aimed at keeping Europe, > Russia, India, China and Japan off-balance and thus > amenable to the needs of the world's "sole remaining > super-power". > Unless and until the European Union can develop > political and military power to match its economic > size, the biggest obstacle to this U.S. strategy of > making the rest of the world subsidize its decline is > Asia, and ultimately, China. Ever since the 1997-98 > crisis, the Asian powers have been taking tentative > steps to build a trade bloc similar to the European > Union and to NAFTA, which would ultimately imply a > customs union, an Asian currency and something like an > Asian Monetary Fund independent of the IMF. (The > Japanese have made proposals for the latter, only to > be slapped down by the U.S.) It is obvious to > everyone that the ultimate stakes in this strategy are > the breaking of dependence on access to the U.S. > market and from the ongoing accumulation of dollars in > exchange for goods. Accordingly, (as with Treasury > Secretary Robert Rubin in during the Asian meltdown) > the U.S. had ridiculed these attempts, just as it has > repeatedly (through Britain, through NATO and most > recently through the Afghan and Iraq wars) managed to > hobble European unification. > This brief analysis has up to now said nothing about > the other potential obstacle to U.S. capitalist crisis > management: the American working class. This is in > part because U.S. capital has been so successful, > since 1973, in driving down living standards for 80% > of the American population, with little open > resistance. One reflection of this success is the > falloff in strike activity to almost zero. But it is > just possible that this attack on the working class > has gone about as far as it can go. The huge losses > sustained by the mutual funds of ordinary working > people in the stock market meltdown, the accelerating > disappearance of retirement for millions, the > exploding cost of private health care, the endless > corporate scandals of recent years (Enron, World.com, > Tyco, etc.), the growing revulsion at CEO payouts by > looted corporations (or the $139 million payout to > Richard Grasso, former head of the New York Stock > Exchange) has eroded the right-wing populist base for > neo-liberal austerity of the past 30 years. The Los > Angeles supermarket and transit strikes that began in > October have witnessed a widespread popular sympathy > and support not seen in years. To restore the minimum > wage in the U.S. ($6.50 per hour) to its purchasing > power of 30 years ago would mean increasing it to $18 > per hour: even a moderate working-class offensive to > regain the ground lost in the past three decades could > mark the end of the dollar empire. > > -- > > Michael Perelman > Economics Department > California State University > michael at ecst.csuchico.edu > Chico, CA 95929 > 530-898-5321 > fax 530-898-5901 >
