I wrote: > I've spent a decade or three pooh-poothing "orthodox" > Leninist-Marxist visions of military-style inter-imperialist > rivalry, i.e., a replay of WWI. Now, it's becoming possible > that Iraq could do to the US what Afghanistan did to the > USSR... so it might just happen some day soon. Of course, > there are are other alternative futures...
CC answers: > There are a few missing steps between the situation in Iraq (no matter > how disastrous for the U.S.) and any replay of WW1 -- namely the > development of an imperialist power prepared (and _driven_) > to confront > the u.s. militarily. That _could_, I believe, happen, but the EU, > Russia, China, China/Japan, all have quite a way to go before > they could > mount such a challenge believably. I totally agree. It's just marginally possible that US "imperial over-reach" in Iraq (and Afghanistan) could break NATO and similar institutions, so that European military/diplomatic/etc. independence could bloom. It should be noted, however, that US companies' direct foreign investment in Europe and Europeans' DFI in the US knits the two areas together economically, discouraging this scenario. Part of my early-morning nightmare/dream is based on a reading of Ken McLeod's THE STAR FRACTION, a science-fiction novel which posits a "war of European integration" that encourages a constant state of war in this century... The sketchy scenario is possible (though probably not likely). > Currently, the best analogy perhaps to the U.S. occupation is the > Japanese invasion of China. Hmm... I'm still thinking in terms of a US elite trying to re-fight (and win) the Vietnam war on different terrain (because "the politicians and the media wouldn't let 'us' win"). But all analogies can be misleading. Jim Devine
