by Perelman, Michael
04 June 2004 21:26 UTC < < <
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What a wonderful example of American imperialism! On a more serious note, Michael, what are the prospects for a recall? -------------- Hi Michael,I've dated my response because I can only say what it looks like at this very moment. Any discussion of the prospects has to recognise that there is a long history of electoral fraud here, that in addition to the domestic tradition there is the support that can be expected from the usual suspect (which won't bother to function through the National Endowment for Destruction) and, of course, that there is the potential and likelihood of further disruptions to the economy with the idea of creating despair in the population which currently supports Chavez. That said, it is essential to recognise that all that was necessary to trigger the recall referendum was 20% (or roughly 2.4 million) of the electorate from the last time. Very few semi-objective observers last year thought it unlikely that the opposition had much less than 30% support. Although the opposition goal during the signature campaign at the end of last November was to get 3.8 million (thus giving them more than Chavez had received to win--- which would have allowed them to say, "Chavez out now!"), despite an incredible amount of fraud they were well below this. Because of irregularities (some innocent), the Electoral Council threw out many signatures and assigned others to be 'repaired' (ie., people had to show up and prove their legitimacy); in the end, they barely got their necessary signatures. On this count, the opposition does not look especially strong. But, they are organised--- the NED-financed SUMATE organisation has extensive computer records on the electorate, and the party organisations that compose the opposition have experienced, committed and disciplined cadres able to bring out their support. In contrast, the Chavist supporters, although likely more in number, demonstrated on this occasion that they were very poorly organised. The Commando Ayacucho, the group assembled from the various Chavist parties to coordinate this recent campaign (which included the attempt to recall opposition legislators), revealed that it had strong individual spokespeople able to attack the opposition and to make rousing, confident speeches but that it lacked the organisation and discipline to deliver what it promised. (This has led to considerable criticism from the barrios and elsewhere.) So, the central question, I think, is whether the Chavist forces will learn adequately from these events. The referendum campaign is an excellent opportunity to deepen the Bolivarian Revolution and to raise both the consciousness and the organisational capacity of those who support it. It is important to recognise that at every step of the way, the process here has been propelled forward by the action of the opposition. In achieving the threshold for a recall referendum on Chavez, the opposition has provided the government with a gift--- the opportunity to turn this into a request for a mandate on its education, health and social programmes, on its attempt to create a new social economy, indeed into a mandate on the constitution itself. Chavez himself will certainly frame the issues this way. But, the results will depend on the concrete steps taken at the base to organise the masses of poor who have been the principal beneficiaries of the government; if new, effective forms of organisation are not developed--- in the face of everything that the opposition, the Bush government and capital will throw at the government, then a successful recall is possible. In short, to coin a phrase, pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
in solidarity, michael
Michael A. LebowitzProfessor EmeritusEconomics DepartmentSimon Fraser UniversityBurnaby, B.C., Canada V5A 1S6
Currently based in Venezuela. Can be reached atResidencias Anauco SuitesDepartamento 601Parque Central, Zona Postal 1010, Oficina 1Caracas, Venezuela(58-212) 573-4111fax: (58-212) 573-7724
