So why did Bush, not Kerry, get the bounce? Tue Aug 3, 7:09 AM ET By Susan Page, USA TODAY
There was a bounce after last week's Democratic National Convention.
But it went to President Bush, not John Kerry.
Pollsters and strategists are puzzling over Kerry's failure to get a boost from a convention that even critics acknowledged went almost precisely as planned. Polls show it improved voters' impressions of Kerry as a strong leader and a potential commander in chief. It burnished views of the Democratic Party.
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Since polling became a routine part of politics, the only other candidate who failed to see any improvement in his standing after the convention that nominated him was George McGovern in 1972.
That year, Democrats fought bitterly over credentials and the platform. Their convention in Miami Beach was so chaotic that the candidate didn't deliver his acceptance speech until well after midnight.
This time, the Democratic convention in Boston was a sea of tranquility. With an emphasis on Kerry's biography, particularly his service in Vietnam, the convention succeeded in improving his image on almost every front, the poll shows. He boosted his standing as a candidate who is optimistic, honest, trustworthy and caring.
The ingredients were carefully chosen, the recipe time-tested. So why didn't the cake rise?
Among the theories:
•There wasn't enough red meat on the menu. The Kerry campaign tamped down direct criticism of Bush, fearing that harsh convention rhetoric would repel swing voters. One result: Kerry's ratings went up, but Bush's ratings didn't go down significantly.
Bush's approval rating fell just 1 percentage point, to 48%. The percentage who said Bush has the personality and leadership qualities needed to be president stayed the same at 55%. Those who said they agreed with Bush on the issues that matter to them stayed precisely the same.
"What they didn't really do was clear contrast" with Bush, says Democratic pollster Doug Schoen. "All the contrasts that were made were inferential. There wasn't anybody who said: 'Here's the problem. Here's what we're going to do differently.' " Some Democrats now will press Kerry to take a harder line.
Republicans already have made it clear they won't repeat the Democratic strategy. Criticism of Kerry, especially of his career in the Senate, is expected to be a major component of the Republican convention, though that approach carries its own risks.
•Kerry failed to specify what he would do about Iraq. A 52% majority still says that Kerry doesn't have a clear plan for handling the situation in Iraq, down only slightly from 56% before the convention. Just 38% say Kerry has a clear plan, compared with 42% for Bush. That makes it more difficult for Kerry to capitalize on the political vulnerabilities Bush faces stemming from the war.
In Boston, Democrats didn't blast the decision to invade Iraq, in part because Kerry voted to authorize the war. The percentage of voters who say it was a mistake to go to war actually dropped after the convention, to 47% compared with 50% before.
"He hasn't presented how he would do things differently," says Brooke Fox, 40, a natural resource policy consultant from Windsor, Colo., who was among those surveyed. "How is he going to persuade the international community to get on board? What he has said are platitudes."
full: <http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=676&e=11&u=/usatoday/sowhydidbushnotkerrygetthebounce>
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