Jim wrote: I'm unsure what kind of growth you're referring to, Terry. The more egalitarian kind or the neoliberal kind? >>I wasn't clear enough about distinguishing between postwar Keynesian growth >>which increases consumption possibilities across the board and neoliberal >>growth which increases the consumption possibilities of the wealthy while >>maintaining (or slightly diminishing) those of everyone else. Neither of >>these is sustainable henceforth. To the extent that this unsustainability >>interrupts the possibility of pursuing these two courses, the legitimacy of >>capitalism will be called into question.<< If it's the former, we can't rule out a world-wide social democracy (or even a world-wide socialism) in the future. Weirder things have happened. (I for one am still amazed that a Black man could be elected president of the US.)
>Further any success in increasing output will have to be concentrated in less developed countries in exchange for their cooperation in curtailing global warming.< This sounds like some sort of "global deal." It seems just as (im)plausible as global social democracy. >>In deep crises all kinds of previously implausible things become plausible. >>Without the crisis a black man would not be the next president of the United >>States. Beyond this, I am feeling comfortable about making predictions for >>the first time in my academic career. This consists in expecting a series of >>rolling crises. The first has begun. It's a financial crisis. The second >>will be a crisis of underconsumption and overproduction (roots in rising >>income inequality and the globalization of markets, then the collapse of >>credit). To the extent this is overcome temporarily capitalism will be held >>back by rising resource costs (roots in rise of China and India, peak oil, >>environmental crises). What does this mean for the future? One possibility: continued crisis and unsuccessful attempts to reform neoliberalism. 3 further stylized possibilities: 1. A new stage of capitalism: Global Post-Keynesianism. The reregulation of finance on an international level, the global coordination of a Keynesian stimulus programme, the undertaking of a "Green New Deal" to deal with energy and resource problems. This will (if successful) be accompanied by a more multilateral international order perhaps beginning with the current G20. 2. Radical version of above: Nationalizing finance on a more permanent basis and the redirection of credit to socially driven priorities, income redistribution as centre of stimulus programme, rebuilding infrastructure so as to fully address global warming, the building of international organization from below. This is still a new stage of capitalism and short of socialism. 3. Revolutionary transition to a global socialism. Unresolved question - what is the relationship between 2 and 3? (apologies if I've missed an earlier and similar discussion). <<
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