Today's NY Times carries an article on a study irrational risk aversion in golf by U. Penn. Wharton School professors Devin Pope and Maurice Schweitzer that might be of interest to economists (or any golfers here on the list): "Settling for Par: Pros More Likely to Play It Safe", http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/16/sports/golf/16study.html.
In summary, the study found that professional golfers "are so consumed with avoiding bogeys that they make putts for birdie discernibly less often than identical-length putts for par" with the difference peaking for putts from 6 to 12 feet and falling off below and above that (including Tiger Woods who was about average in this measure and who famously "hates bogeys"). I did find a few things a bit off, though. The article says that the irrational bias discovered in the study "cost each golfer about one stroke tournament per which can translate to hundreds of thousands of dollars in prize money". But isn't it true that if each golfer gained one stroke per tournament, they would be no better off in terms of prize money, as every golfer would be similarly better off? Also, even though I realize that a stroke is a stroke in golf (I'm an avid golfer) it seems that there is something psychological here that is not captured in the article that has to do with "investment". When a golfer has a "reasonable" putt for birdie (not too short, not too long, the 6-12 feet peak area found in the study), it represents an investment in effort from the tee that has "paid off", and squandering this investment by three-putting is an intolerable idea, and so the propensity is to be somewhat cautious. Conversely, when a golfer has a reasonable putt for par in this same range, it represents somewhat of a failure --- either you have already putted once, or you failed to get on the green to give yourself a good try at birdie --- and so the propensity is to feel that you have to "make up" for your recent failure. A good study, though, it seems. Bill _______________________________________________ pen-l mailing list [email protected] https://lists.csuchico.edu/mailman/listinfo/pen-l
