On Jun 19, 2009, at 10:38 AM, Doug Henwood wrote:
The pattern has historically been that initial claims peak first and then roll over and head down, then continuing claims (which are what you're referring to here), as a recession is ending. So, this is starting to look like normal end-of-recession labor market patterns. Not that the recovery is likely to sparkle, but it's quite possible that this is the beginning of the end of the worst.
Since no recession since 1929 has been comparable to this (worldwide, 19 months so far and still headed downward), and there was no unemployment insurance then, it seems less than sensible to see current second-derivative fluctuations as "normal end-of-recession labor market patterns." What Jim's question is asking for is the number of out-of-work people *who have exhausted their unemployment benefits."
Shane Mage
This cosmos did none of gods or men make, but it always was and is and shall be: an everlasting fire, kindling in measures and going out in measures." Herakleitos of Ephesos
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