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From: Center for Economic and Policy Research <[email protected]>
Date: Fri, Jun 7, 2013 at 10:34 AM
Subject: Economists Call on Media to Report "Overwhelming Evidence"
Regarding Venezuelan Election Results
To: [email protected]
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logo]<http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=ZoLAkkubfHhb%2Fyccbp0Zk3AxNBcynrtu>
Economists Call on Media to Report “Overwhelming Evidence” Regarding
Venezuelan Election Results
*Allegation that election was stolen “is simply not believable in the face
of the actual evidence.”*
------------------------------
*For Immediate Release:* June 7, 2013
*Contact: *Dan Beeton, 202-239-1460
*Washington, D.C.*- Fourteen economists and other academics have written an
open letter to the media calling for the reporting of “overwhelming
statistical evidence” that shows that Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro
won the April 14 elections as verified by Venezuela’s electoral
authorities. The economists, who include James K. Galbraith of the
University of Texas and Robert Pollin of the University of Massachusetts,
point to a statistical analysis of the initial audit of 53 percent of votes
as irrefutable proof that Maduro won the election, but the media’s failure
to report this fact could mean that “many if not most Americans believe
that the election was stolen or that the result is somehow in question.”
The letter cites three “uncontested facts” about Venezuela’s electoral
process and the audit: the existence of both electronic records and paper
receipts of voters’ choices; the completion of the initial audit of 53
percent of votes on election night in the presence of [tens of thousands]
of witnesses; and the fact that this audit found no discrepancies between
the electronic vote tally and paper receipts. The letter notes that this
allows for a simple statistical analysis of the audit, which shows that
“the probability of getting the audit
result<http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=jd%2BhNspKDIiUSDFDR0wbLHAxNBcynrtu>of
April 14, if in fact opposition candidate Henrique Capriles Radonski
had
received a majority of the votes, is far less than one in 25 thousand
trillion.”
The full letter follows.
------------------------------
June 7, 2013
An Open Letter to the Media:
As economists and statisticians who have used and taught statistics and
probability theory, we want to call attention to the clear statistical
evidence regarding the results of Venezuela's presidential election on
April 14th, which leaves no room for doubt about the result.
According to what we understand to be uncontested facts, as presented by
the Center for Economic and Policy
Research<http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=Vi0rDjv3jS61zqxZDl%2BDGHAxNBcynrtu>,
Venezuela's election process has the following characteristics:
1) The voting is done by machine, with a paper receipt which the voter then
places in a sealed box, allowing for a complete paper record of the machine
count.
2) Immediately after the polls close, 53% (20,825) of the machines are
chosen at random, the paper receipts are counted, and the two tallies are
compared. This is done in the presence of witnesses from all sides.
3) When this “hot audit” was done on the night of April 14, this process
yielded no discrepancies between the machine count and the paper count for
the 53% percent of machines sampled. (An additional 1 percent of voting
machines were audited the following day, making an initial audit total of
54 percent of machines.)
So far as we know, these facts are accepted by all parties, including the
Venezuelan opposition and the United States Department of State. Yet the
State Department has called the outcome of the election into question, and
refused to recognize the results. It has demanded that the remainder of
the voting machines be audited as well,
calling<http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=aHARjtHJJdwGojIA3FJ2RXAxNBcynrtu>instead
for a "100 percent audit or recount of the results" as "an
important, prudent, and necessary step."
The point we wish to stress is this: on the agreement that these are the
facts, what is the probability that we would get the April 14 audit result
if in fact there were enough discrepancies in the remaining machines to
reverse the result? This is a simple question that any economics or
statistics professor can answer.
The probability of getting the audit
result<http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=gteBBrLMzV8%2FpZ7GSZud%2FXAxNBcynrtu>of
April 14, if in fact opposition candidate Henrique Capriles Radonski
had
received a majority of the votes, is far less than one in 25 thousand
trillion. (See the full calculation
here<http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=ixcQ2XAh%2FWjIFAWqCGQ0mnAxNBcynrtu>
.)
It does not make sense to ignore this overwhelming statistical evidence, as
the Obama administration, and almost all major U.S. media outlets, have
done. As a result of this omission, many if not most Americans believe
that the election was stolen or that the result is somehow in question.
This is simply not believable in the face of the actual evidence.
Sincerely,
James K. Galbraith, Lloyd M. Bentsen Jr. Chair in Government/Business
Relations and Professor of Government, University of Texas at Austin
John Schmitt, Senior Economist, Center for Economic and Policy Research
Robert Pollin, Department of Economics and Political Economy Research
Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts-Amherst
Ronald Chilcote, University of California, Riverside
James G. Devine, Professor of Economics, Loyola Marymount University [for
identification only]
Michael Meeropol, Visiting Professor Of Economics, John Jay College of
Criminal Justice of the City University of New York
Vicente Navarro, Professor of Health and Public Policy at the Johns Hopkins
University
Alejandro Álvarez, Senior Professor, Economic Faculty- UNAM (Mexico)
Julio Huato, Associate Economics Professor, St. Francis College, Brooklyn,
New York
Robley E. George, Director, Center for the Study of Democratic Societies
Mayo Toruño, Professor and Chair, Economics Department, California State
University, San Bernardino
David Barkin, Profesor de Economía, Universidad Autonoma
Metropolitana-Xochimilco (Mexico)
Roberto Veneziani, Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts,
Amherst
Gerald Epstein, Professor of Economics and Co-Director, PERI, University of
Massachusetts, Amherst
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