NY Times October 4, 2013 Poll Finds Support for de Blasio, if Not All His Ideas By DAVID W. CHEN and MEGAN THEE-BRENAN
New York City voters want to keep Raymond W. Kelly as police commissioner. They want more charter schools. And nearly half of them support the Police Department’s use of the stop-and-frisk tactic. But the city’s voters, by an enormous margin, are planning to support Bill de Blasio for mayor next month, despite the fact that Mr. de Blasio, a Democrat, opposes each of those positions, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll released on Friday. The poll found a huge challenge facing Joseph J. Lhota, the Republican nominee, as he seeks to persuade voters in an overwhelmingly Democratic city to choose him. With the election just a month away, on Nov. 5, Mr. de Blasio held a commanding lead of 68 percent to 19 percent among likely voters. More than 4 in 10 likely voters said they had no opinion of Mr. Lhota, while only about a quarter did not have an opinion of Mr. de Blasio, currently the city’s public advocate. And 58 percent had a favorable opinion of Mr. de Blasio, compared with 22 percent who viewed Mr. Lhota favorably. Mr. Lhota is seeking to change the dynamic. He began broadcasting his first general election television advertisement on Wednesday, pointing out that he supports same-sex marriage, abortion rights and the legalization of marijuana, but that, unlike Mr. de Blasio, he does not plan to raise taxes. Mr. de Blasio, seeking to thwart any advantage Mr. Lhota might gain from being on the airwaves alone, immediately introduced his own ad, showing a clip from his victory speech on the night of the primary. The race is not over: the two men have agreed to televised debates on three successive Tuesdays this month, and those exchanges, as well as the television ads, will introduce the candidates to New Yorkers who have not yet tuned in. But the poll found extraordinarily daunting odds against Mr. Lhota, a former chairman of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority. Mr. de Blasio’s lead cut across just about every category: he led among voters regardless of age, race, gender, and income and education level. Registered Republicans made up the only group in which a majority backed Mr. Lhota. “I like de Blasio’s general demeanor, his bearing and his poise, and he is more for the common man than Lhota,” Doris Bruntel, 69, a legal proofreader from Chelsea, said in a follow-up interview. She described herself as conservative, but said she believed that Mayors Rudolph W. Giuliani, a Republican, and Michael R. Bloomberg, an independent, had prioritized the concerns of business, and that Mr. de Blasio was “looking out for the rest of us.” Voters shared several of Mr. de Blasio’s priorities — particularly his desire to address income inequality and the high cost of housing and to improve public education. And a majority of voters suggested that they want the next mayor to prioritize reducing the gap between rich and poor, a key plank for Mr. de Blasio, rather than to create a climate that would reduce taxes and regulation to sustain job growth, something emphasized by Mr. Lhota. On most issues, the poll found, Mr. de Blasio enjoyed a strong advantage over Mr. Lhota. By almost four to one, voters thought that Mr. de Blasio would do a better job than Mr. Lhota in improving public education. By almost three to one, they supported Mr. de Blasio’s proposal to increase taxes on high-earners to finance an expansion of prekindergarten education. And by almost two to one, they believed that Mr. de Blasio, not Mr. Lhota, would keep the city safe from crime or a terrorist attack or during a natural disaster. Seven in 10 supported creating an independent inspector general to monitor the police — a measure passed by the City Council with Mr. de Blasio’s support and Mr. Lhota’s opposition. More than 8 in 10 voters wanted to make affordable housing a top priority, an issue also most associated with Mr. de Blasio. Voters said Mr. de Blasio better understood their needs and problems. And, in a troubling sign for Mr. Lhota, voters said that Mr. de Blasio was better equipped to manage the city’s complex government, even though Mr. Lhota was a budget director and a deputy mayor under Mr. Giuliani. Daniel Meehan, of Bayside, Queens, 64, a retired warden with the city’s Correction Department, said Mr. Lhota was being hurt by his Republican label. “I think Lhota’s getting caught up in what I perceive to be a backlash against Republicans, especially with what’s going on now,” he said. “It’s becoming an issue of the haves and the have-nots.” But some voters said they would be interested in at least hearing Mr. Lhota out. “If he was the better problem solver and had solutions to increasing jobs in the city and bettering our school system, that could change my mind,” Jeffry Perez, a 21-year-old college student from the South Bronx, said. Donald P. Levy, director of the Siena Research Institute, said that while “anything can happen,” Mr. Lhota faced an uphill challenge because potential lines of attack — that Mr. de Blasio would take the city back to an era with more crime, and more fiscal woes — were not clicking with voters. “He’s got a lot of problems, let’s face it,” Mr. Levy said. “It’s time for him to pull out whatever he thinks is his best stuff at this point: his biography, his toughness, his ability to respond to disasters, his ability to keep New Yorkers safe from a terrorist attack, and make difficult decisions.” There were a few signs of concern for Mr. de Blasio. Although his blunt criticism of the stop-and-frisk tactic helped to propel him to victory in the Democratic primary, general election voters have mixed feelings about it. Voters favored creating more charter schools, echoing a position taken by Mr. Bloomberg and Mr. Lhota, but not one favored by Mr. de Blasio, who has proposed charging charter schools a sliding scale of rent. They also agreed with Mr. Lhota’s desire to keep Mr. Kelly as police commissioner, while Mr. de Blasio would replace him. But occasionally voiced criticisms of Mr. de Blasio — that he is too liberal for some, or that he might be overemphasizing his family in his television commercials — have not gained much traction with voters. Only 20 percent of those surveyed said they felt that he is too liberal. And 47 percent said the media attention on his family and personal life had been about right, while 35 percent said it had been a bit much. Mr. de Blasio and Mr. Lhota are not the only choices for mayor. There will be 15 candidates on the ballot, including Adolfo Carrión Jr., a former Bronx borough president who is the Independence Party nominee and Jack Hidary, a high-tech entrepreneur. Mr. Carrión had the backing of just 2 percent. The citywide Times/Siena College poll was conducted on landlines and cellphones from Sept. 28 to Oct. 2 with 700 likely voters. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus four percentage points. Allison Kopicki, Marina Stefan and Dalia Sussman contributed reporting. _______________________________________________ pen-l mailing list [email protected] https://lists.csuchico.edu/mailman/listinfo/pen-l
