On Sep 26, 2014, at 5:25 PM, Robert Naiman <[email protected]> wrote:

> If I'm the USG, I don't see these developments as a problem at all; maybe I 
> see them as good.
> 
> A key longstanding goal of the USG is to isolate and marginalize ISIL and 
> Nusra from other Syrian rebel groups. This has been controversial among many 
> rebel groups; past attempts by the USG to marginalize Nusra from other groups 
> have met with strong resistance, leading some of these groups to affirm 
> solidarity with Nusra instead.
> 
> If Nusra gets closer to ISIL, it's harder for other rebel groups to resist 
> the US campaign to force them to cut their ties to Nusra.
> 
> From the US point of view, any flavor of Al Qaeda is pretty much the same; 
> people that it's way OK to bomb. Whether Al Qaeda types become even more 
> extreme Al Qaeda types is not on their list of things to worry about; indeed, 
> it strengthens the USG cause, just like the beheadings and other horrible 
> things done by ISIL, looped on TV, have strengthened the USG cause.

With what implications for the course of the uprising against the Assad regime 
and prospects for a negotiated settlement? The situation strikes me as 
extraordinarily fluid and confused with a lot of sorting out still to be done 
among the many players.

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