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A Socialist Project e-bulletin .... No. 1115 .... May 13, 2015
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Alberta: A Perfect Political Storm
<http://www.socialistproject.ca/bullet/1115.php>
J. F. Conway
Election outcomes like Alberta's do not come often: the total collapse
of a four decade conservative dynasty and majority power for a party
considered on the "left" in Canada. The reactions were typical: shock,
elation, fear, uncertainty. No one saw it coming. Well, that's not quite
true. If you followed the polls you knew a significant event was
unfolding. The polls were not volatile, which says a great deal. They
recorded a steady rise in NDP support and a corresponding decline in
Tory support. Days before the election it was pretty clear the NDP would
form a minority government. It was also clear the Tories were about to
be tossed into the dustbin of history. On election day something more
happened -- the yearning for change crystallized around the NDP just to
make sure the change happened.
Alberta's voters have a habit of doing this very dramatically, but very
rarely. They are definitely not fickle. In 1921 Henry Wise Wood's United
Farmers of Alberta (UFA) was elected, defeating the Liberals
(1905-1921). In 1935 William Aberhart's Social Credit swept to power,
wiping out the UFA (1921-1935). In 1971 Peter Lougheed's Tories ended
the Social Credit dynasty (1935-1971). On May 5 Rachel Notley's NDP
crushed the Tory juggernaut (1971-2015). Two patterns are worth noting.
First, when Alberta's voters throw a party out, that party is finished.
If it hangs around for a time, like the Liberals or the Socreds, it
remains a zombie party, never to come to life again. Second, once
Alberta's voters give an untested party a majority they remain loyal as
long as the leader and the party delivers, or honestly fights to
deliver, what was promised. If Notley and the NDP actually deliver on
their promises in the next four years, they might be around for a long time.
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