> On Feb 9, 2016, at 1:18 PM, James Creegan <[email protected]> wrote: > > Marv Gandall wrote: > Bernie is certainly doing what he is doing right now to very good effect. I > was making an observation about the prospects for a third party if he is > denied the nomination, not proposing it as a strategy. Whatever Louis, > Carrol, Shane and others may think or hope, urban workers, women, blacks, > Hispanics, students, environmentalists, gays, etc. will continue to vote > Democratic as long as they see that party providing the only possibility for > defending their gains in the legislative, regulatory, and judicial arenas > from Republican attack. > > Even those liberal Democrats who are more sympathetic to the Green Party > platform, as we saw in the Nader campaign, will still stick with their party > for this reason and even denounce a third party seen as paving the way for > Republicans to win elections. > > A third party will have to begin consistently electing representatives at the > state and local levels before it is regarded as a serious alternative, and it > won't become a serious alternative until a frustrated Democratic > rank-and-file, drawn from the unions and social movements, begin to join it > large numbers. I suggested this is still a very unlikely outcome despite the > remarkable groundswell of support for Sanders who will join them in > supporting Clinton against the Republican candidate should she get the > nomination. > -------------- next part -------------- > > *********************************8 > > I think Marv may be missing part of what's going on here. Isn't the very same > lesser evilist realpolitik in whose name voters are perennially urged to vote > for Democrats also being invoked as a reason to support Hillary as the > "electable" candidate? And isn't an entire cohort of mostly younger voters > showing itself to be oblivious to precisely such "pragmatic" arguments, to > the utter incomprehension and frustration of the Democratic establishment? > Why could not at least some of these younger voters, having got nowhere with > the Dems, supply a base for a third party?
Strictly conjecture on my part, Jim. The experience of dissident movements in these parties is that after an internal defeat most fall away disillusioned or fall into line behind the leadership with only a small percentage joining a group further to the left. In this case, the nearest at hand would be the Green Party, as it is in Canada for disillusioned NDP’ers. It’s possible I may be underestimating how many in and around the Sanders campaign will move out of the DP orbit if Clinton is the candidate. There is more political ferment and dissatisfaction with the established parties than we’ve seen in a long time, and perhaps it will redound to the benefit of the Greens and supply them with the substantial base they currently lack. Certainly, if you had predicted the scale of the Corbyn and Sanders insurrections last year, I’d have said you were smoking something strong.
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