For immediate release November 22, 2004

Middle East Report 233
Winter 2004

IRAN'S CLOUDED HORIZONS

After many modestly hopeful fits and starts, the "reformist moment" in
Iran's Islamic Revolution is over. Hardline conservative clerics have
recaptured almost the entire state. The hardliners and Washington hawks
seem
to have placed Iranian-Western relations on a track toward confrontation.
The possible contours of this confrontation are traced in "Iran's Clouded
Horizons," the winter 2004 issue of Middle East Report.

Despite their coup de force against the reformists, deep social changes
will
thwart the full-blown restoration for which the hardliners hope, argues
Morad Saghafi, editor of the Tehran-based journal Goft-o-gu. These changes
coupled with the example of the reformist moment mean that the political
debate in Iran can never again avoid democratization. Paris-based scholar
Farhad Khosrokhavar shows how the "new conservatives" have softened their
"revolutionary" rhetoric in a nod to political reality.

The experience of the last seven years has emboldened Iranian women, finds
anthropologist Ziba Mir-Hosseini in her profile of ex-parliamentary deputy
Fatemeh Haqiqatjoo, an Islamist who is not afraid to be called a feminist.

A generation-spanning photo essay by the renowned Abbas, introduced by
historian Shiva Balaghi, reminds Iran watchers not to "try to read into the
crystal ball." "It's a very dangerous game," says the photographer who has
chronicled on film the fall of the Shah, the rise of Ayatollah Khomeini and
the rise and fall of the parliamentary reformists.

Meanwhile, the specter of conflict with the West hangs over Iran's domestic
politics -- at least ostensibly because of Iran's apparent ambition to
build
a nuclear weapon. Researcher Kaveh Ehsani and Chris Toensing, editor of
Middle East Report, assess the likely scenarios as Iran's elaborate dance
with the US, the UN and Europe proceeds. Roschanack Shaery-Eisenlohr of the
University of Chicago examines another oft-cited sticking point -- the
Islamic Republic's backing of Hizballah in Lebanon.

Also featured: Paul Silverstein and David Crawford look at the Moroccan
state's attempt to integrate Berberness into the national identity; Sandy
Sufian cautions against complacency about HIV/AIDS in the Middle East and
North Africa; and more.

Subscribe to Middle East Report or order individual copies online at
www.merip.org.

For further information, contact Chris Toensing at [EMAIL PROTECTED]

Middle East Report is published by the Middle East Research and Information
Project (MERIP), a progressive, independent organization based in
Washington, DC. Since 1971 MERIP has provided critical analysis of the
Middle East, focusing on political economy, popular struggles and the
implications of US and international policy for the region.

Middle East Report Online is a free service of the Middle East Research
and Information Project (MERIP).

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