S O C I A L I S T   V O I C E
Debate and dialogue on issues before the workers movement

Number 28, January 17, 2005          www.socialistvoice.com
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U.S.-ordered Iraq vote aims to deepen divisions, spur civil war

By Fred Feldman

The fraudulent national election that the occupying powers have
announced for January 30 in Iraq presents a serious political challenge
to the patriotic forces resisting the occupation.

The aim of the election is to establish a puppet government with
sufficient credibility to win international recognition and a degree of
legitimacy, however grudging, in Iraq. The imperialist occupiers also
hope that such a government can create an effective armed force to
battle the patriotic resistance. This has completely eluded them to
date.

The U.S. and its allies have failed to impose their will on Iraq. They
have brought only destruction, death, and chaos to Iraq, plunging the
society into a crisis so profound that the proposed vote has little
credibility. The New York Times and other supporters of the occupation
call for postponement of the vote, but the administration have insisted
that the elections be held on the date set.

The occupiers are using the vote as a tool to set Iraq's two main
religious communities against each other. They hope to consolidate their
domination of Iraq through fostering a civil war, which--were it to take
place--would be a truly horrific capstone to the destruction, ruin, and
death they have already brought to the country.

The strategy was summed up by a January 12 report in the London
'Financial Times,' based on interviews with top U.S. officials,
including Colin Powell: "U.S. leverage rests upon awareness among the
Shia that their government is unlikely to survive a civil war without
continued U.S. military support."

The colonial 'election'

The election is illegitimate. It is conducted under conditions of
imperialist violence and manipulation that make impossible a democratic
expression of the Iraqi people's will. Unless a government that issues
from such an election were to turn sharply and completely against the
occupation, it will inevitably represent the rule of the occupying
powers.

The Shia bourgeois leadership is nonetheless committed to it, in the
expectation that it will win the vote. Rather than striving for a common
front with the Sunni Arab population against the occupying powers, it is
collaborating with the thugs and killers of the puppet Iraqi Interim
Government. Top leaders of the Shia coalition Abdul Aziz el-Hakim and
Ahmad Chalabi have made statements insisting on the "necessity" for U.S.
troops to stay in Iraq for the coming period. El-Hakim's close ties to
the most authoritative Shia leader, Ayatollah Sistani, indicate some
support for this stand among the Shia elite.

Prime Minister Iyad Allawi deliberately stoked the sectarian fires by
sending Shia national guardsmen to join the U.S. assault that laid waste
to the city of Fallujah in November. That horrific war crime killed many
hundreds and has turned hundreds of thousands more into refugees in
their own country.

The Shia election platform does call on the occupiers to announce a
timetable for withdrawal. An important Sunni organization, the
Association of Muslim Scholars, has offered to drop its boycott if such
a timetable is announced before the election. Moqtada al-Sadr, the Shia
leader in Baghdad who leads the impoverished Sadr City, has expressed
sympathy for the boycotters and his "Sunni brothers," while supporting
some candidates in the election.

The present disarray between Iraq's two Arab communities, the majority
Shia and the minority Sunni, is in sharp contrast to the highpoint of
unity between the two groups in mid-2004. In April 2004, a popular
uprising of Sunnis and Shias took place when the U.S. launched
simultaneous assaults on the largely-Sunni city of Fallujah and the
predominantly-Shia city of Najaf. The U.S. generals had no alternative
but to call a retreat. (See Socialist Voice # 4)

Divide and rule

Since then, U.S. strategy has been one of divide and rule. Efforts to
disarm Shia militias were allowed to lapse, and these militias were
permitted de facto control of significant Shia communities. The more
militant current led by Moqtada al-Sadr was permitted to reemerge into
legality. The bourgeois Shia leaderships were encouraged in the belief
that the proposed vote would secure them a dominant role in the Iraqi
state. Meanwhile, the U.S. launched ferocious assaults on the
predominantly Sunni population in Fallujah, Samarra, and elsewhere. (See
Socialist Voice #20)

(The Kurds, previously a subject nationality within Iraq, have now
established de facto independence under a pro-occupation government.
There are few "coalition" troops in the Kurdish region. See Socialist
Voice #14)

Despite the lack of unity in the Arab population, the occupiers' recent
assaults have run into strong opposition. A military "victory" in
Samarra in October was quickly followed by a renewed loss of control to
the resistance forces there. The November assault on Fallujah met
determined and heroic resistance, which continues to the present. The
scale of resistance and destruction in Fallujah has turned Washington's
"victory" there into a major political setback.

Nevertheless, some of the actions of the Sunni-led armed resistance have
played into the divide-and-rule strategy. The reported call of
resistance leader al-Zarqawi to "slaughter, slaughter, slaughter"
members of the "Iraqi military" set up by the occupation takes no
account of the fact that the recruits are mostly Shia and the attackers
mostly Sunni. As well, the pre-election offensive of the armed
resistance is taking a heavy toll among Shia working people.

The recent killing of a top aide to the Ayatollah Sistani, who continues
to have wide popular support among the Shia, is another example.  The
Ansar al-Islam, a Sunni Muslim resistance group, reportedly  took
responsibility for the killing.  But another Sunni group opposed to the
occupation, the Association of Muslim Scholars, denounced the action.

The Sunni-based resistance is correct to attack the U.S.-manipulated
vote as a fraud. But some resistance currents have gone further,
criticizing the notion of democratic rule per se. On December 30, the
Ansar al-Sunnah Army and two other Islamic insurgent groups were
reported by MSNBC News to have issued a statement which placed an attack
on democracy and majority rule at the center of their anti-election
propaganda. "Democracy is a Greek word meaning the rule of the people,
which means that the people do what they see fit," the statement said.
"This concept is considered apostasy and defies the belief in one
God--Muslims' doctrine."

Such opposition, in principle, to elections and majority rule makes the
resistance appear to the Shia people as directed not only against the
occupiers, but against them as well. The pro-war U.S. capitalist media
is portraying the occupiers as leading the Shia in a democratic struggle
that will deal a death blow to "Sunni domination." A campaign of fear
and racist contempt against Sunni Muslims is under way, part of the
general anti-Muslim and anti-Islam propaganda campaigns which are an
organic part of the "war on terror."

When British imperialism set up the Iraq state in 1920, it gave the
minority Sunni bourgeoisie a privileged position that they retained
until the fall of Saddam Hussein. The Hussein regime carried out its
most murderous assaults against the Shia and Kurdish populations,
keeping their bourgeois layers far from the seat of power. That
traditional domination is now in shreds, and the approach of the
colonial election has given rise to fears among sectors of the Sunni
elite of "Shia domination" in the future Iraq.

Sectarian violence between Iraqis helps the U.S. government to cover up
a fundamental fact of the reality of Iraq today, namely: the occupation
is responsible for all the violence in Iraq today. What's more, division
has left the resistance vulnerable to being blamed for bombings and
assassinations that may be carried out by occupation forces.

These elections are about tightening the imperialist chains around Iraq,
not about liberating the Shia or anyone else. The vote cannot and will
not create anything progressive.

The puppet army: a political task

Certainly, the resistance must act with determination to obstruct the
consolidation of an Iraqi puppet army in the hands of the occupiers, and
the puppet troops are a legitimate military target. But the task of
rendering this army unusable is fundamentally political. The Iraqi
"volunteer" soldiers are in fact economic conscripts, driven to enlist
by the economic disaster inflicted on Iraq by the occupation, which has
driven unemployment rates to 70%.

These troops have been unwilling and unable to combat the resistance.
Their ranks are permeated with resistance supporters. U.S. officials
have shown signs of writing off the army as an effective instrument of
their rule. They are hoping instead that after the elections, Shia
militias can be formed for this purpose.

Military action against the puppet army must go hand in hand with a
political campaign to win over its soldiers. (For the story of how such
a political approach contributed to the disintegration of the U.S. army
in Vietnam, see Chapter 23 of Fred Halstead's epic history of the U.S.
antiwar movement, "Out Now," published by Pathfinder Press.)

The tactical problem posed by the Iraqi puppet forces is only a special
case of the overriding challenge facing the resistance: The Shia
community must be won over, not dismissed or punished as
"collaborators."

The divisions fostered by the January 30 election among the Iraqi
population, the vast majority of whom oppose the occupation, weaken the
patriotic resistance--as do indiscriminate attacks on civilians, or
unprovoked attacks on police and army volunteers of dubious military
potential. In this context, the Shia are more likely to blame the armed
resistance for terrorist attacks on Shia (and Christian) places of
worship, some of which bear hallmarks of an occupation-instigated
provocation.

The patriotic resistance faces the enormous challenge of uniting to the
greatest extent possible an Iraqi people divided by social classes with
conflicting interests around a fundamental interest of Iraq as a nation:
ending occupation and U.S. political domination. Differences in
religious beliefs and regional concerns provide fuel to the occupiers'
divide and rule strategy.

Unconditional support to the resistance

Throughout all the imperialist wars against oppressed peoples during the
last century and more, Marxist revolutionists' support of resistance by
the oppressed has always been unconditional. This support is offered
regardless of the leadership that this struggle may throw forward.

Debates over whether bourgeois nationalism, Islamic currents, Baathism,
and so on are "exhausted" or on the rise in Iraq or elsewhere are simply
not the point in this context. When fighters rise against imperialist
domination and oppression, under whatever banner, working-class fighters
around the world belong on their side.

Ending the occupation and achieving Iraqi independence is the  necessary
precondition to the victory of democracy and majority rule in Iraq. And
progress by the resistance, in all its different facets, will lead to
further progress in forging the leadership needed for victory. Moreover,
the Iraqi resistance provides strong moral support to the embattled
Palestinians; it lessens imperialist pressure on Syria, Iran, North
Korea, Cuba, and Venezuela; and it undermines imperialism's project to
lock the entire Third World into a jail of heightened "neoliberal"
oppression.

The record of a year and a half of occupation shows that imperialism has
nothing to offer Iraq: neither democracy, nor peace, nor economic
recovery. Indeed, far from committing resources to the reconstruction of
Iraq, the U.S. and its allies are engaged in the large-scale plundering
of the country. The country's oil wealth is being robbed by Kuwait (to
end up in U.S. banks) and diverted to pay for "reconstruction projects"
that focus on export of capital rather than construction. The national
treasury is drained, and nationalized economic patrimony sold off at
fire-sale prices to benefit the great imperialist corporations. Medical
care, education, employment, and social security in all forms are left
in ruins.

Imperialist rule will only deepen Iraq's suffering. The struggle for
independence, by contrast, offers the Iraqi masses an opportunity to
enter politics, gain confidence and experience, and force open the road
to social progress in their country.

Imperialism's inability to rebuild Iraq--the high value it places on
plunder and the low value on organizing productive labor on an expanding
scale--shows the depth of the illness affecting its world organism.
Chaos in Iraq, as in the Congo, the Ivory Coast, Sudan, etc., is
fundamentally a result not of "failed states" but of the accelerated
decline of the world system, and the weakening of its political and
economic heart in the imperialist countries. The "failed fingers" and
"failed toes" testify to a developing breakdown in the entire
circulatory system.

As for Iraq, the imperialists offer no alternative to chaos. They profit
by it, use it as a weapon to demoralize and demobilize people, and have
no way to overcome it. Their record in Iraq is a symptom of
imperialism's spreading worldwide disorder.

On the road to ending the occupation

It remains highly unlikely that the U.S. can win acceptance of continued
occupation from the Shia elite because this would destroy these leaders'
authority among wide sectors of the Shia population. The unfolding
divide-and-rule scenario is likely, in the end, to merely deepen the
hostility of the Iraqi masses and lay the basis for new advances for
advances toward unity of Sunni and Shia against the criminal occupation.


Working people, youth, and other opponents of this war outside Iraq can
play an indispensable role in this process through continued efforts to
mobilize and broaden support for immediate withdrawal of all occupation
troops.

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