Michael, > Julio, what do you think of the Zapitista's Other Campaign? I assume that > most > of us have some limited familiarity with it, but since most of us are > Americans, > we probably do not know much.
My impression is that a large number of Mexicans in the big cities, mostly students, teachers, and low "middle-classers" who lean left (that's a lot of people, especially in Mexico City), are sympathetic to the *local* demands of the EZLN. So they'd want a solution that involves respect to the indigenous peoples' rights and ways, some transfer of public wealth to them, etc. But I don't think they view the EZLN as able to really challenge the status quo at the national level. The EZLN doesn't appear to be able to take power or competent to lead the country. My guess is that most lefties in Mexico think that, when Marcos inserts himself into national politics (as opposed to just sticking to the EZLN local demands), he somewhat overreaches. As sympathetic of the EZLN's cause as they are, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (a former PRI leader from the oil state of Tabasco, recent Mexico City governor under the PRD, and leading presidential candidate) is likely to attract most of their votes in the election later this year. The political machine of the PRD, as fragmented as it is, is much more sophisticated and capable than the EZLN and its supporters. Plus, the subset of the PRD machine more committed to AMLO seems tight and well oiled. Tellingly, AMLO's *first* campaign promise is to implement the 1996 agreements of San Andrés between the EZLN and the government of the president Ernesto Zedillo (PRI), agreements that Zedillo reneged on. Such a move would effectively disarm the EZLN politically. I think Marcos' strategy is more long run. Perhaps in anticipation of the above, he's in the process of repackaging himself as a serious national political figure. And he's trying to be the champion of a lot of causes close to the hearts of young urban workers and middle classers, gays, feminists, radical students, etc. (Those people, plus foreign lefties and celebrities, have been the effective base of political support of the EZLN from the getgo.) He seems to believe that sticking to his guns (literally and figuratively), maintaining independence from the PRD, is more profitable in the long run -- and I can see his point. I don't anticipate Marcos coming around and joining AMLO's campaign at any point. But, given the conditions I've listed and AMLO's political finesse, I don't expect Marcos' attacks against the PRD to be responded in kind. Even if AMLO's lead in the polls shrinks (as it's likely to happen as election day approaches), he won't lash out at Marcos. Julio
