Greetings Economists,
On Apr 9, 2006, at 6:34 PM, ravi wrote:
Do people really believe that the USA (in particular BushCo) will launch
a war against Iran at this point? I would consider the probability
vanishingly small (for non-exotic reasons: stretched out military, low
popularity ratings, public dismay over Iraq, etc, etc). Of course
generating talk about Iran is probably a good diversionary tactic.
--ravi
Doyle,
I think they (The U.S.) don't consider bombing attacks as war. It is a
'cheap' technical way of using war to discipline second or third tier
states. The bombings aren't the same thing as an occupying army. The
probability is above 50% at this point, because this tactic is not
political poison as an invasion might be. That's what the nukes are
being used for is to justify destroying hardened sites, and being
underground not threatening like above ground attacks. The aggressive
attack stance has not been repudiated by national leaders like Clinton.
What would bring it below 50% is some sort of substantial global
response before hand. Or perhaps in the U.S. a sizable public
response.
thanks,
Doyle
