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Monday, May 29, 2006 Opinion - News Analysis Inside Ukraine http://www.hindu.com/2006/05/29/stories/2006052904551100.htm Vladimir Radyuhin In contrast to American activism in Ukraine, Russia has so far adopted a low-key stand. THE ESTABLISHMENT of a pro-Western group of former Soviet states in the Ukraine capital of Kiev last week became a key element in Washington's strategy to contain Russia. The Organisation for Democracy and Economic Development set up in Kiev on May 23 on the basis of the U.S.-sponsored GUAM, a loose coalition of Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Moldova, has effectively split the Russia-dominated Commonwealth of Independent States, to which all the four states still belong. The new group declared its "pro-Europe choice" - a euphemism for leaving the Russian orbit. "Our key objectives are ... Euro-integration and Euro-Atlantic integration," Ukraine's President Viktor Yushchenko told journalists after the summit. The U.S. was the main moving spirit behind the new organisation. Earlier this month, U.S. Vice-President Dick Cheney finalised plans for the Kiev summit with the GUAM leaders at a meeting of Baltic and Black Sea states in Vilnius, Lithuania. Mr. Cheney used the Vilnius meeting to mount the harshest attack on Russia since the end of the Cold War, accusing Moscow of "undermining the territorial integrity" of its ex-Soviet neighbours and using its energy resources as "tools of intimidation and blackmail." Washington has cast Ukraine in the role of a new power centre in the former Soviet Union to offset Russian influence. Under Ukraine's leadership, the refurbished GUAM is to form a cordon sanitaire between Russia and "old Europe" - Germany, France, and, Italy, which favour cooperation with, rather than containment of, Russia. "New Europeans" led by Poland have enthusiastically backed the new GUAM, and Romania has even volunteered to join it to "share with the member-states its experience of joining NATO and the European Union." However, the fate of a pro-Western coalition brought to power in Ukraine in the wake of the 2004 "orange revolution" is hanging in the balance following inconclusive parliamentary elections in March. To save the coalition and its Western orientation, the U.S. does not hesitate to grossly interfere in Ukraine's domestic affairs. Washington has put strong pressure on President Viktor Yushchenko to break off coalition talks with the pro-Russian former Prime Minister, Viktor Yanukovich, and give the post of Premier to his estranged "orange" ally Yulia Timoshenko. Even as talks on the formation of a new cabinet continue in Kiev, the White House expressed confidence that an "orange coalition" will be able to form the government. As a further encouragement to pro-Western Ukraine U.S. President George W. Bush offered to visit Kiev on the way to a G8 summit in Russia in July. The unstated condition for the visit is that an "orange" government is in place by that time. In contrast to American activism in Ukraine Russia has adopted an expressly low-key stand. Apart from a repeatedly postponed visit by President Vladimir Putin to Kiev, the only indication of Moscow's likely reaction if pro-Western politicians get the upper hand in Kiev is a report that the price of Russian gas for Ukraine may go up by another 30 per cent, which will ruin much of Ukraine's energy-intensive industry. Copyright © 2006, The Hindu.
