On 9/12/06, Jim Devine <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
On 9/12/06, Yoshie Furuhashi <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> Yes, it's in Khuzestan, a province that Saddam Hussein attacked first
> during the Iran-Iraq war, and I bet that Washington will attack it
> first if it goes to war with Iran in the future and will try to foment
> Arab separatism there in any case.
if the US attacks there, it will likely do it using covert forces. In
general, do not expect any US aggression to be "labor intensive"
(i.e., using a lot of US personnel) given the quagmire in Iraq.
Washington would want to see two conditions before it does a ground
invasion if it does it: its Iraq venture wound up; and Iran's economy
ground down through sanctions. Ironically, the Iraq War makes it
difficult to include oil in any international sanctions against Iran.
Any
overt attack will be done using strategic bombing of some sort.
One thing that strategic bombing can do is to knock off oil and other
installations for a long time, especially if it is combined with
punitive economic sanctions.
Russia, China, the EU, and even Japan would be reluctant to allow
Washington to do that, as long as oil prices are high. How long will
oil prices remain on the high side?
--
Yoshie
<http://montages.blogspot.com/>
<http://mrzine.org>
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