I'm not sure I'd buy into any timetable for a likely US withdrawal from
Iraq.  Any president who would do it--or go along with it, in the case of
the Congress--would make tremendous enemies of the Insane Fifth or Insane
Quarter of the presently active civil population and a like number that
defers to the Insane.  All whipped into a madness by the people who'd now
love to get out.  I can't imagine a Democrat with the guts to do it.

My guess (and it's only that) is that the US will try to de-escalate the
conflict to something like the level of Vietnam before the Gulf of Tonkin.
Most likely, the more they try, the more the insurgents will take a globally
embarrassing toll on them.

So, I think that the occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq are likely to last
for some time.

The upside of this is that it creates some real openings for the rest of the
world.  And it's going to cause immense disaffection and polarization at
home.

ML

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