Just Foreign Policy News November 10, 2006 No War with Iran: Petition More than 3500 people have signed the Just Foreign Policy/Peace Action petition through Just Foreign Policy's website. Please sign/circulate if you have yet to do so: http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/involved/iranpetition.html
Just Foreign Policy News daily podcast: http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/podcasts/podcast_howto.html Summary: U.S./Top News Writing on Huffington Post, Just Foreign Policy notes that Americans told pollsters before the election they expected a Democratic victory to result in withdrawal from Iraq and that the U.S. should set a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq. Now Americans may wish to consider a deadline for Congress to establish a timetable for withdrawal; Groundhog Day would give new Members of Congress time to get settled. Aljazeera.com reprinted Amy Goodman's Democracy Now interview with Global Exchange's Raed Jarrar, currently on the Just Foreign Policy tour. Jarrar noted that the overwhelming majority of Iraqis - like the majority of Americans - want a timetable for the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq. George McGovern will meet with the Congressional Progressive Caucus next week to recommend a strategy to remove U.S. troops from Iraq by June. If Democrats don't take steps to end the war in Iraq soon, they won't be in power very long, McGovern told reporters. "I think the Democratic leadership is wise enough to know that if they're going to follow the message that election sent, they're going to have to take steps to bring the war to a conclusion," he said. President Jalal Talabani said Thursday that he had been assured by Democratic congressional leaders during a recent visit to Washington that they had no plans for a quick withdrawal of U.S. forces, AP reports. AP reported that prospects for extending John Bolton's job as U.N. ambassador died Thursday as Democrats and Senator Chafee said they would continue to oppose the nomination. Robert Gates, President Bush's choice to become defense secretary, has made it clear that he would seek advice from moderate Republicans who have been largely frozen out of the White House, the New York Times reports. Concern about leftist victories in Latin America has prompted President Bush to quietly grant a waiver that allows the US to resume training militaries from 11 Latin American and Caribbean countries," USA Today's reports. In hearings on Robert Gates' nomination as Defense Secretary, senators may revisit allegations that he politicized intelligence on the Soviet Union and falsely denied knowledge of the Iran-contra scandal, the New York Times reports. With control of every committee in Congress starting in January, the new majority will inherit broad powers to subpoena and investigate, the Los Angeles Times notes. That is expected to translate into wide-ranging and contentious hearings on the Iraq war and other issues. The Democratic takeover of Congress will raise the profile of lawmakers who have repeatedly urged the Bush administration to talk to key adversaries such as Iran, North Korea and Syria, the Washington Post reports. The incoming chairmen of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the House International Relations Committee - Sen. Biden and Rep. Lantos - have long argued that the administration's approach to dealing with adversaries has hamstrung diplomacy. Iran Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Friday called U.S. President George W. Bush's defeat in congressional elections a victory for Iran, Reuters reports. Israel's deputy defense minister suggested Friday that Israel might be forced to launch a military strike against Iran's disputed nuclear program, AP reports. The comments did not necessarily reflect the view of Israel's government, said a government spokeswoman. Prime Minister Olmert, Olmert, expected in Washington Sunday, said he was confident in the U.S. handling of the international standoff over Iran's nuclear program. Iran will review relations with the IAEA if the Security Council adopts a European draft resolution imposing sanctions, Tehran's nuclear negotiator said Friday. Diplomats have said this would likely entail curbing access of the U.N. watchdog's inspectors to Iranian nuclear sites, but not ending it entirely, as this would harden suspicions and alienate Russia. Iraq Iraq's health minister estimated Thursday that 150,000 civilians had been killed since the U.S.-led invasion to oust dictator Saddam Hussein in March 2003. This number is three times higher than the Iraq Body Count figure based on Western press reports of civilian casualties. President Mubarak of Egypt came out strongly against hanging Saddam Hussein, saying in remarks published Thursday that it could make Iraq explode into more violence, AP reports. But Iraq's prime minister said the execution could take place by the end of the year. Lebanon French officials say that French peacekeeping forces in southern Lebanon came within seconds of firing missiles at Israeli F-15 fighter jets that repeatedly dived on their positions last week, the Washington Post reports. The UN and France, which leads the U.N. peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon, have repeatedly protested Israel's flights over the area, saying they are a violation of the ceasefire. Palestine Hamas committed today to folding its eight-month government if that would restore the international assistance that was cut off after it won national elections earlier this year, the New York Times reports. By distinguishing US and European aid to the Palestinian Authority from Palestinian tax revenues confiscated by the Israeli government, the article improves on past coverage of the issue by the Times. Contents: U.S./Top News 1) Now, the Real Battle: Let's Make Groundhog Day the Deadline for Congress to Set a Timetable for Withdrawal from Iraq Robert Naiman, Just Foreign Policy, Friday, November 10 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-weisbrot-and-robert-naiman/now-the-real-battle-let_b_33820.html The election defeats of Republicans on Tuesday, with Democrats taking control of the House and Senate for the first time since 1994, have been widely described as a referendum on the unpopular war in Iraq. Certainly, most Americans told pollsters before the election that they expected a Democratic victory to result in withdrawal from Iraq and most Americans told pollsters before the election that the U.S. should set a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq, 61% in a Newsweek poll. With all the talk of putting deadlines on the Iraqi government, it's time to put a deadline on our own government. I suggest Groundhog Day as the deadline for Congress to set a timetable for the withdrawal of all US troops and bases from Iraq. The new Congress convenes in January, so this will give them some time to find their new desks. And we don't want to become like the Bill Murray character in the movie "Groundhog Day," who experiences the same thing day after day - needless deaths in Iraq, in this case - even though we voted overwhelmingly for something different. And everyone can remember Groundhog Day - every time a local newscast does a silly puff piece on this holiday, they'll be carrying our message: time for Congress to set a deadline for withdrawal from Iraq. 2) U.S. midterm elections: An Iraqi perspective Democracy Now interview with Raed Jarrar, Aljazeera.com, 11/9/2006 http://www.aljazeera.com/me.asp?service_ID=12307 Amy Goodman: Raed Jarrar is an Iraqi architect and a blogger, does the blog raedinthemiddle.blogspot.com, and is the Iraq Project Director for Global Exchange. Your response to the Democratic sweep of the House? Raed Jarrar: It doesn't seem that there is a departure from the parameters set by Republicans, in fact. It doesn't seem that there is any plans to include Iraqi voices and consult with Iraqis to take further steps. It just seems that there are some more unilateral plans that will be taken from the U.S. side, for changing the course. And changing the course may be to a worse or better direction; no one can tell until now. Goodman: What do you think should happen? Jarrar: What I think should happen is that Iraq's unity should be kept, and this is one of the most controversial issues and an issue that is causing anxiety for Iraqi leaders, because there are a lot of Democrats who are asking to divide the country to more than one place. And what I think should happen is that Iraqi voices - between 70% and 90% of Iraqis are demanding to set a timetable for a complete withdrawal of the troops. And even a majority within the Iraqi government that was elected under the occupation is demanding to set such a timetable. So these voices should be brought to the table and discussed with, and a timetable for ending the occupation should be set with Iraqis, and other steps for fixing the mistakes they've committed in Iraq. Goodman: Raed Jarrar, you've taken on a new job - we just have ten seconds - where you're going to be talking about U.S. foreign policy, traveling around this country. Jarrar: Yeah, I'm going on a tour with an organization called Just Foreign Policy. You can check their website, justforeignpolicy.org. We're going on a 16-city tour around the Northeast. Goodman: I want to thank you very much for being with us, Raed Jarrar, Iraqi architect and blogger, now with the group Just Foreign Policy. [Note: Raed is still with Global Exchange. We have not "raided" him, we are just borrowing him. - JFP] 3) McGovern to Meet With Congress on War Associated Press, November 10, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/us/AP-McGovern-Speech.html George McGovern, the former senator and Democratic presidential candidate, said Thursday that he will meet with more than 60 members of Congress next week to recommend a strategy to remove U.S. troops from Iraq by June. If Democrats don't take steps to end the war in Iraq soon, they won't be in power very long, McGovern told reporters. "I think the Democratic leadership is wise enough to know that if they're going to follow the message that election sent, they're going to have to take steps to bring the war to a conclusion," he said. McGovern will present his recommendations before the Congressional Progressive Caucus, a 62-member group led by Reps. Lynn Woolsey and Barbara Lee. "The best way to reduce this insurgency is to get the American forces out of there," McGovern said. "That's what's driving this insurgency." McGovern told the audience Thursday that the Iraq and Vietnam wars were equally "foolish enterprises" and that the current threat of terrorism developed because - not before - the US went into Iraq. McGovern's plan - as written in his new book, "Out of Iraq: A Practical Plan for Withdrawal Now" - also calls for the US to remove hired mercenaries from the region, push for the removal of British troops and establish a temporary transitional force, similar to police, made up of Muslims from the region. "I've talked with a lot of senior officers - generals and admirals - in preparation for this book, that say this war can't be won, that the problems now are not military problems," McGovern told reporters. "There isn't going to be any decisive victory in Iraq." "Never let the new class of Democrats forget that they're there in considerable part because of the war the American public has now turned against," McGovern said. "That's going to have to be something that they have to explore with Republicans and with the White House." 4) Iraq President Says Democrats Reassuring Associated Press, November 9, 2006, Filed at 9:12 p.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Iraq-President.html President Jalal Talabani said Thursday that he had been assured by Democrat congressional leaders during a recent visit to Washington that they had no plans for a quick withdrawal of U.S. forces. Talabani said Democrats also backed the idea of placing U.S. troops in bases while putting Iraqis in charge of security in and around cities. "They all told me that they want the success of Iraq's democratically elected government and continued support for the Iraqi people to defeat terrorism," Talabani said about his trip to the US in late September as many were predicting the Democratic congressional triumph in Tuesday's midterm elections. "One of them (a Democrat leader) told me that any early withdrawal will be a catastrophe for the US and the world," Talabani, speaking from his northern hometown of Sulaimaniyah, told the Dubai-based Al-Jazeera satellite broadcaster. The "Americans made big mistakes in Iraq," he said, including the rejection of its leaders hopes to form an interim Iraqi government immediately after the March 2003 invasion rather than occupying the country for more than a year. 5) From Lame Duck to Dead Duck: Bolton Goes Down Robert Naiman, Just Foreign Policy, Public Citizen's "Lame Duck Hunt," November 9 http://citizen.typepad.com/lameduckhunt/2006/11/from_lame_duck_.html AP reported that "Prospects for extending John Bolton's job as U.N. ambassador essentially died Thursday as Democrats and a pivotal Republican said they would continue to oppose the nomination." On Thursday the White House resubmitted Bolton's nomination to the Senate. Bush appointed him in August 2005 while Congress was in recess, an appointment that will expire in January. The pivotal Republican, of course, was Lincoln Chafee, who was defeated Tuesday. Chafee told reporters Thursday he would continue opposing Bolton. That would deny Republicans the votes they would need to move Bolton's nomination from the Senate Foreign Relations Committee to the full Senate. 6) After Rumsfeld: Bid To Reshape The Brain Trust David E. Sanger, New York Times, November 10, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/10/world/middleeast/10policy.html Robert Gates, President Bush's choice to become defense secretary, has sharply criticized the Bush administration's handling of the Iraq war and has made it clear that he would seek advice from moderate Republicans who have been largely frozen out of the White House, according to administration officials and Gates's close associates. The administration officials said that Bush was aware of Gates's critique of current policy and understood that Gates planned to clear the "E Ring" of the Pentagon, where many of Secretary Rumsfeld's senior political appointees have plotted Iraq strategy. Stephen Hadley, the national security adviser, said Thursday Bush regarded his choice of Gates as "a terrific opportunity" to rethink Iraq. Gates will be drawing on his experience and contacts from the administration of Bush's father, including the former security adviser Brent Scowcroft and former Secretary of State James Baker. "Gates's world is Brent Scowcroft and Baker and a whole bunch of people who felt the door had been slammed in their face," one former official who has discussed Iraq at length with Gates said Thursday. "The door is about to reopen." A close friend of Gates's described him as having been "clearly distraught over the incompetence of how the Iraq operation had been run." The friend said Gates had returned from a recent visit to Baghdad expressing disbelief that Rumsfeld, whom Bush ousted Wednesday, had not responded more quickly to the rapid deterioration of security and that the president had not acted sooner to overhaul the management of the war. 7) U.S. to lift ban on Latin American military training http://blogs.usatoday.com/ondeadline/2006/11/us_to_lift_ban_.html "Concern about leftist victories in Latin America has prompted President Bush to quietly grant a waiver that allows the US to resume training militaries from 11 Latin American and Caribbean countries," USA TODAY's Barbara Slavin reports today. "The administration hopes the training will forge links with countries in the region and blunt a leftward trend." The training ban, "originally designed to pressure countries into exempting U.S. soldiers from war crimes trials," has caused the US to lose influence in the region, military officials tell Slavin. Public reaction appears limited so far. The School of the Americas Watch, which monitors and protests the U.S. military programs that have controversially trained Latin American military groups for decades, plans a large demonstration this month to protest the change and call for an end to the training. The School of the Americas gained notoriety after the Pentagon's 1996 revelation that manuals used there "advocated executions, torture, blackmail and other forms of coercion against insurgents," as The Washington Post put it. A number of its graduates have also been accused of human rights abuses. A public forum this month covered by the Associated Press and others shows the debate around the issues here remain alive and well. What do you think of the return to training? Will it help American influence in Latin America, or does more involvement mean more trouble? 8) Gates Hearing In Senate May Have Echoes Of 1991 Scott Shane, New York Times, November 10, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/10/washington/10gates.html The accusations lodged against Robert M. Gates the last time he came before the Senate for confirmation, in 1991, sound eerily contemporary in the wake of the debate over skewed prewar intelligence on Iraq. Gates, in the words of one CIA subordinate, Jennifer Glaudemans, "politicized intelligence analysis," insisting on slanted reports that became the basis for "momentous foreign policy decisions." The Senate will have to decide whether such claims, which did not prevent the C.I.A. veteran from becoming the agency's director 15 years ago, have new relevance now that President Bush has named him to succeed Rumsfeld as defense secretary. Senators may revisit assertions that Gates falsely denied knowledge of the Reagan administration's secret scheme to sell arms to Iran and use the proceeds to support the Nicaraguan contra rebels, an issue that derailed his first nomination to lead the C.I.A. in 1987. 9) Democrats are set to subpoena The new majority is expected to hold hearings on military spending and the Iraq war - just for starters. Richard B. Schmitt & Richard Simon, Los Angeles Times, November 10, 2006 http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/washingtondc/la-na-investigations10nov10,0,5223734,print.story Rep. Ike Skelton knows what he will do in one of his first acts as chairman of the Armed Services Committee in the Democratic-led House: resurrect the subcommittee on oversight and investigations. The panel was disbanded by the Republicans after they won control of Congress in 1994. Now, Skelton intends to use it as a forum to probe Pentagon spending and the Bush administration's conduct of the Iraq war. It has been 12 years since Democrats were in control of both the House and Senate. But they are looking to make up for lost time, and in some cases, make the Bush administration and its business allies sweat. With control of every committee in Congress starting in January, the new majority will inherit broad powers to subpoena and investigate. And that is expected to translate into wide-ranging and contentious hearings. 10) Democrats May Urge More Contact With U.S. Adversaries Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, Friday, November 10, 2006; A07 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/09/AR2006110901871.html The Democratic takeover of Congress will raise the profile of lawmakers who have repeatedly urged the Bush administration to talk to key adversaries such as Iran, North Korea and Syria, increasing pressure on the White House to stop placing restrictions or conditions on such discussions. The incoming chairmen of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the House International Relations Committee - Sen. Biden and Rep. Lantos - have long argued that the administration's approach to dealing with adversaries has hamstrung diplomacy. Iran and Syria are problematic neighbors of Iraq, and critics have charged that not talking to Damascus and Tehran has hurt efforts to end the violence in Iraq. Although outgoing Senate Foreign Relations Chair Lugar is also an advocate of greater engagement, the new Democratic leaders say they are more likely to call hearings and demand explanations from administration officials. Lantos, who has often visited such countries as Libya and North Korea, said he is "passionately committed to having a dialogue with people we disagree with." Since Secretary of State Rice took office nearly two years ago, some restrictions on dealing with Iran and North Korea have been loosened. On North Korea, the administration has rejected calls for high-level bilateral contacts but allows them within a six-nation negotiations focusing on North Korea's nuclear programs. On Iran, the administration this year offered to join multilateral talks on Iran's nuclear program - but only if Tehran first suspends uranium enrichment. The Iraq Study Group, headed by former secretary of state Baker and former representative Hamilton, is also expected to address the issue of whether dialogue with Iran and Syria would aid the war effort. President Bush and Democratic lawmakers have said they are eagerly awaiting the study group's conclusions. The nomination of Robert Gates as defense secretary could also change the dynamics of the administration's internal debates. Outgoing Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld is a fierce foe of engaging with enemies, but Gates two years ago co-wrote a Council on Foreign Relations report that called for a "direct dialogue" with Iran. "The current lack of sustained engagement with Iran harms U.S. interests in a critical region," the report said, arguing the US should explore "common interests" with Iran as it did with the Soviet Union or China when they were U.S. adversaries. The report suggested that lifting unilateral sanctions and allowing U.S.-Iranian commercial relations to flourish "could be a powerful tool" in dealing with Iran. Zbigniew Brzezinski, national security adviser to President Jimmy Carter and co-author of the report, said he hopes Gates's presence at Bush administration policy debates will bring a "a degree of rationality, common sense, balance and historical perspective" to the table. Brzezinski said the administration's requirement that Iran give up enrichment before talks can start is not a "fair bargain" because Iran has a right to enrich under the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, and thus would be reluctant to give it up for simply talking. He said lifting trade embargoes or dismantling sanctions would be a greater inducement to start a productive dialogue with Iran on a range of issues. Iran 11) Khamenei Calls Elections a Victory for Iran Reuters, November 10, 2006, Filed at 9:01 a.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/washington/politics-usa-elections-iran.html Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Friday called U.S. President George W. Bush's defeat in congressional elections a victory for Iran. Bush has accused Iran of trying to make a nuclear bomb, being a state sponsor of terrorism and stoking sectarian conflict in Iraq, all charges Tehran denies. "This issue (the elections) is not a purely domestic issue for America, but it is the defeat of Bush's hawkish policies in the world," Khamenei said in remarks reported by Iran's student news agency ISNA on Friday. "Since Washington's hostile and hawkish policies have always been against the Iranian nation, this defeat is actually an obvious victory for the Iranian nation." Khamenei, a senior cleric in power since 1989, has the last word on matters of state in Iran's complex system of Islamic rule, while the government, under President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is in charge of day-to-day decision making. 12) Israel Official: Strike on Iran Possible November 10, 2006, Associated Press, Filed at 12:17 p.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Israel-Iran-Nuclear.html The deputy defense minister suggested Friday that Israel might be forced to launch a military strike against Iran's disputed nuclear program -- the clearest statement yet of such a possibility from a high-ranking official. "I am not advocating an Israeli pre-emptive military action against Iran and I am aware of its possible repercussions," Deputy Defense Minister Ephraim Sneh, a former general, said in comments published Friday in The Jerusalem Post. "I consider it a last resort. But even the last resort is sometimes the only resort." Sneh's comments did not necessarily reflect the view of Israel's government or of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, said government spokeswoman Miri Eisin. Olmert, who was arriving in Washington on Sunday, said he was confident in the U.S. handling of the international standoff over Iran's nuclear program. The Bush administration and other nations say is a cover for developing atomic weapons, but Tehran says the program is peaceful. 13) Iran Could Review IAEA Ties Over UN Draft: Larijani Reuters, November 10, 2006, Filed at 11:50 a.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/news/news-nuclear-iran.html Iran will review relations with the International Atomic Energy Agency if the U.N. Security Council adopts a European draft resolution imposing sanctions, Tehran's nuclear negotiator said on Friday. While nuclear envoy Ali Larijani met senior Russian officials in Moscow, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said in Tehran that Iran's enemies could not do a thing to stop its nuclear fuel program. The EU draft resolution demands nations prevent the sale and supply of equipment, technology and financing contributing to Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Drawn up by Britain, France and Germany, the draft would also ban travel and freeze foreign assets of people and entities involved in the two programs. Russia has proposed sweeping deletions, including the travel and assets provisions. It says such changes would avoid isolating Iran and encourage it to negotiate seriously. "We will review our relations with the IAEA if the U.N. accepts the Euro-troika resolution without taking into account the amendments made by Russia," Larijani was quoted as saying by Interfax news agency. Larijani did not specify what the "review" could mean. Iran has repeatedly threatened to reassess ties with the IAEA if faced with sanctions and diplomats have said this would likely entail curbing access of the U.N. watchdog's inspectors to Iranian nuclear sites, but not ending it entirely. Last summer, Iran temporarily denied visas to some inspectors and curtailed the frequency of visits to atomic sites by inspectors already in the country to convey its anger with big power pressure on it to stop enriching uranium. Diplomats said Iran would be unlikely to ban all IAEA activity in response to the relatively mild initial sanctions now being considered as this would harden suspicions it seeks atom bombs and alienate trade partners, including Russia. Larijani said later, after meeting Russian Security Council head Igor Ivanov, that the sanctions deliberations by EU powers, the US, Russia and China were counterproductive."We adhere to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. If there are any disagreements, we are ready to solve them through talks. Those insisting on adopting the resolution deliberately seek to make the situation worse," he said in a statement. "Nuclear weapons have no role in Iran's military doctrine." Russia is under U.S. pressure to agree to tougher wording on sanctions. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Saturday Moscow would accept limited U.N. actions against Iran if they had a defined time frame and there was an agreed mechanism for lifting them. Iraq 14) Iraq Official Estimates Civilian Toll At 150,000 Associated Press, November 10, 2006 http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-civilians10nov10,1,3364527.story Iraq's health minister estimated Thursday that 150,000 civilians had been killed since the U.S.-led invasion to oust dictator Saddam Hussein in March 2003. No official count of the deaths has been available, and estimates have varied widely. The number is three times as high as a Times estimate in June that was based on Health Ministry and Baghdad morgue statistics. The Lancet, a British medical journal, last month published a controversial study contending that nearly 655,000 Iraqis have died because of the war. The study, dismissed by President Bush and other U.S. officials as not credible, was based on interviews of households and not a body count. Health Minister Ali Shammari, who gave his new estimate of 150,000 to reporters Thursday during a visit to Vienna, also disputed the Lancet figure. "Some people say … 600,000 are killed. This is an exaggerated number," he said. Shammari later said he had based his figure on an estimated average of 100 bodies per day taken to morgues and hospitals — though such a calculation would come out closer to 133,000. "It is an estimate," he said. Hassan Salem of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, or SCIRI, said the 150,000 figure included civilians, police and kidnapping victims. SCIRI, Iraq's largest Shiite political group, holds the highest number of seats in the parliament. 15) Mubarak Warns Against Hanging Saddam Associated Press, November 10, 2006, Filed at 5:14 a.m. ET http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Saddam-Death-Sentence.html Egypt's president came out strongly against hanging Saddam Hussein, saying in remarks published Thursday that it could make Iraq explode into more violence. But Iraq's prime minister said the execution could take place by the end of the year. The statement from President Hosni Mubarak of Eygpt broke an uneasy silence among Arab leaders over Sunday's verdict by an Iraqi court, which convicted Saddam for the killings of some 150 Shiite Muslims after an assassination attempt against him in 1982. Mubarak, a regional heavyweight and a top U.S. ally, appeared to speak for many in the region who are uneasy about seeing a former Arab president tried and sentenced -- no matter how much they disliked Saddam's regime. Analysts suggested Arab leaders are worried about the precedent an execution would set, and said Arab publics often identify with their leaders. "Carrying out this verdict will explode violence like waterfalls in Iraq," Mubarak was quoted as saying by state-run Egyptian newspapers. Hanging Saddam "will transform (Iraq) into blood pools and lead to a deepening of the sectarian and ethnic conflicts." Lebanon 16) French Forces Almost Fired On Israeli Jets F-15s Dived on Peacekeepers In Lebanon, Defense Official Says Molly Moore, Washington Post, Friday, November 10, 2006; A22 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/09/AR2006110901886.html French peacekeeping forces in southern Lebanon came within seconds of firing missiles at Israeli F-15 fighter jets that repeatedly dived on their positions last week, according to French Defense Minister Michele Alliot-Marie. Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy summoned Israel's ambassador to Paris to his office on Thursday to express "serious concern" about the incident and demand that Israel halt its flights over southern Lebanon. "Our troops barely avoided a catastrophe," Alliot-Marie told the lower house of France's Parliament on Wednesday night in remarks broadcast Thursday. "In legitimate defense, our soldiers removed the covers from the missile battery and were two seconds away from firing at the planes that were threatening them." A spokesman for the Israeli Defense Ministry in Tel Aviv said reports of the Oct. 31 incident were under investigation. The UN and France, which leads the U.N. peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon, have repeatedly protested Israel's flights over the area, saying they are a violation of the cease-fire that ended this summer's 33-day war between Israel and Hezbollah guerrillas. Israeli officials say the flights are needed to monitor Lebanon's compliance with U.N. mandates that it prevent the smuggling of weapons to Hezbollah. But U.N. peacekeepers reported 14 violations by Israeli aircraft last week during mock raids, including three over the headquarters of French troops in the southern Lebanese town of Froun. French officials said the warplanes dived toward the ground, then jerked skyward in maneuvers that could be used to drop bombs or fire on ground forces. The planes were "clearly in attack position," the French defense minister said. The French complaints follow allegations that Israeli fighters fired over a German warship off the Lebanese coast, which Israel denied, and a report of a non-hostile encounter between Israeli F-16 fighters and a German helicopter. Palestine 17) Hamas Offers to End Rule if Aid Resumes Ian Fisher, New York Times, November 10, 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/10/world/middleeast/11mideastcnd.html Hamas committed today to folding its eight-month government if that would restore the international assistance that was cut off after it won national elections earlier this year. In a shrewd and dramatic speech, the Hamas prime minister, Ismail Haniyah, said he would likely resign in the next "two or three weeks" to make way for a national unity government more acceptable to international donors than Hamas, the organization responsible for the deadliest attacks against Israel. It was a public acknowledgment that Hamas had failed to run the Palestinian Authority on its own terms in the face of an American and Israeli-led cutoff of funds and aid, and that Haniya and his government would soon be replaced by a "unity" government of technocrats, currently being negotiated with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Hamas refused to meet the three conditions set out by the international community: to recognize the right of Israel to exist, to forswear violence and to accept previous Palestinian-Israeli agreements that imply a two-state solution. In turn, Israel withheld more than $50 million a month in taxes and customs collected for the Palestinians and the US and Europe cut off direct aid to the Palestinian Authority. [Just Foreign Policy has previously taken the Times to task for not reporting this correctly. By distinguishing the Palestinian tax revenue confiscated by Israel from US and European aid, this paragraph is a significant improvement on earlier reporting. -JFP] The efforts of Hamas to bring in sufficient money from Arab supporters, especially given the reluctance of banks to challenge the Americans, have not been sufficient to pay salaries to thousands of employees dependent on the Palestinian Authority. Haniyah's public confirmation was not a complete surprise to his listeners, but it marked a symbolic public moment here: an acknowledgment of the difficulties Hamas faced, internally and with the outside world, as it tried to move from fighting to governing. Much as the speech roused cheers at the mosque, and praise here for its apparent sacrifice, it was unclear whether Haniyah's stated intentions could restart the flow of aid as Palestinians. On one hand, Haniyah suggested that any new government of national unity would be able to satisfy the demands of Israel and other donors, which include recognizing Israel's right exist. At the same time, Haniyah said that Hamas would remain a key player that would never waver from principle. This raises the question of whether a new government would be any more palatable to donors than the current one. Hamas has refused to recognize Israel's right to exist, for example, but it is unclear that any new government, many of whose key officials will be appointed by Hamas, will do so either, at least in any explicit way. At a minimum, the speech seemed to burnish Hamas's populist credentials at a time when its support has been shrinking amid the economic hardship and still-high bloodshed, underscored by the deaths of 19 people here on Wednesday from an apparently errant Israeli artillery barrage. (Eighteen were killed in the initial incident; another died of his injuries Friday.) For months, Hamas has been in negotiations with Fatah, the party led by Abbas, to form a national unity government of professionals and technocrats not immediately beholden to any party. In recent days, those talks seem to have picked up steam, and Haniyah's announcement seemed a firm sign of hope that they may succeed. Haniyah said he expected more talks next week and that "within two or three weeks, we will announce joyful news." In theory, such a government would be able to win back international aid that paid about half of the $165 million the Palestinian Authority needs every month to pay salaries and operating expenses, with the money the Israelis collect on behalf of the Palestinians making up a part of the remainder. Even so, the Palestinian government was running a deficit. But theory aside, the three conditions cause distinct problems for Hamas, and experts disagree over whether the group can, in the end, stay true to its declared objective of creating a state including all of historical Palestine (including Israel) and also satisfy donors. Hamas offers a long-term truce with an Israel in its pre-1967 borders, but has not repudiated its longer-term objectives. Israeli officials have said they would not hand over the money they collect to a Palestinian government, led by anyone, that merely fudges the conditions. "Any Palestinian government has to meet these three conditions — it doesn't matter who is in it, what their names are," Tzipi Livni, the Israeli foreign minister, said in an interview with the Jerusalem Post published today. Even with a new government, it seems clear that Hamas intends to remain the driving political force: It holds a majority in the parliament, and its reported candidates to replace Haniyah all have deep connections to Hamas. Reportedly the choice of Haniyah's successor is a major block holding up a final deal on a new government. Mustafah Sawwaf, a Palestinian journalist and analyst deeply familiar with Hamas, said that the intention to remain the principal player means that Hamas can never accept the three conditions for restarting aid. "As long as Hamas is in control, it will not," he said. But another political expert, Khaled Abdel Shafi, said that, given the economic problems and worries about more bloodshed, Hamas would likely have no choice but to find a way to accede to the conditions. "The people are tired of the current situation," he said. "They are very worried." He said he believed most Hamas supporters could accept the conditions for resumed aid, if not directly from the mouths of Hamas leaders and if, in fact, the money resumed. "It's only the hard-core of Hamas, which is not that significant in terms of numbers, which is worried about the recognition of Israel," he said. - Robert Naiman Just Foreign Policy www.justforeignpolicy.org Just Foreign Policy is a membership organization devoted to reforming U.S. foreign policy so it reflects the values and interests of the majority of Americans.
