To the best of my ability to discern, the oil supplied from the fields
is being used more rapidly than the discoveries that replace the
consumed product... and it's been that way for a while.
.
As a matter of fact, it's admitted, with a vain attempt at 'spinning' it:
.
“Peak oil” theorists fail to note that the industry has replaced more
oil reserves through field reserve upgrades than from exploration,
which has tended to keep production levels steady, Jackson said.
.
Peak oil isn't speculation, but the belief that there's plenty of oil
left is!
The optimist in this article calls for availability out to 122 years
from now, and of course doesn't bother to mention that the the most
likely scenario 122 years from now will be that the only consumer with
access to oil will be the military.
MSNBC.com
World oil supply still plentiful, study shows
Influential think tank dismisses 'peak oil' theory, sees production rising
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15715744/
Reuters
Updated: 1:21 p.m. PT Nov 14, 2006
HOUSTON - World oil production will not begin to fall for at least
another 24 years, contrary to doomsday theories that supply is already
in terminal decline, a prominent energy consulting group said Tuesday.
Cambridge Energy Research Associates said in a report that the world has
some 3.74 trillion barrels of oil left -- enough to last 122 years at
current consumption rates and triple the amount estimated by “peak oil”
theorists.
The world consumes nearly 85 million barrels of oil per day, with the
United States using about a quarter of that, according to the Department
of Energy.
“Oil is too critical to the global economy to allow fear to replace
careful analysis about the very real challenges with delivering liquid
fuels to meet the needs of growing economies,” said Peter Jackson,
director of oil industry activity for Cambridge, a Massachusetts-based
consultant to the oil, natural gas and electric power industries.
The said the peak in global daily oil production will not come before
2030 and will be followed not by a steep decline, but rather by an
“undulating plateau” of ups and downs in output before a gradual
dropoff, according to the report.
Jackson said the main flaw in “peak oil” theory is that it fails to
account for exploration, technology, rising estimates of the size of
existing fields and geopolitical shifts.
The “peak oil” idea was first proposed by the late geologist M. King
Hubbert in 1956, who correctly predicted a 1970 peak in U.S. production
in the lower 48 states. Hubbert followers have carried forward the
theory, applying it to global supplies.
Matthew Simmons, chairman of Houston-based investment banking firm
Simmons & Co. International, said last month that world production of
crude oil may have peaked this year, setting the stage for energy shortages.
“The peak’s been called on many occasions, and dates come and go without
any scientific explanation," Jackson said in a teleconference to discuss
the report, “Why the 'Peak Oil' Theory Falls Down: Myths, Legends, and
the Future of Oil Resources.”
Actual production has exceeded “peak oil” predictions by 15 billion
barrels in the United States alone, and such contrary data has caused
advocates of the idea to keep shifting the predicted peak year into the
future, Jackson said.
“In doing this, they’re proving the opposite of what they’re
suggesting,” Jackson said.
The sheer size and variety of the oil-producing world, 35,000 fields in
more than 70 countries, makes it difficult to apply “peak oil” analysis
everywhere,” Jackson said. Hubbert initially looked at only part of the
United States.
“Peak oil” theorists fail to note that the industry has replaced more
oil reserves through field reserve upgrades than from exploration, which
has tended to keep production levels steady, Jackson said.
Technological development and geopolitical shifts, more than realities
underground, will govern how production unfolds before it begins to
decline permanently in the second half of the 21st century, the
Cambridge report said.
The plateau could last for decades, Jackson said.
“The 'peak oil’ theory causes confusion and can lead to inappropriate
actions and turn attention away from real issues,” Jackson said.
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