Calderón is testing a heavy-fist approach in his (my) state of Michoacán, sending tens of thousands of federal troops there "to fight the drug lords." He wants the scared middle class behind him to gain some trace of legitimacy for his weak government. If his experiment doesn't fail (or backfire), he may score some points.
López Obrador declared recently to Carmen Aristégui (CNN en Español) that something drastic had to be done -- not only in Michoacán, but in the entire country -- to confront the cancer of organized crime. He added that his approach would have been different from the "puppet government"'s approach, but -- in principle -- he can't condemn the action, which involves the army conducting police actions. It's clear that a lot of working people don't view those actions as negative. It's a fine line though. In Michoacán, the rich and the aspiring middle class are very thankful to Calderón for the action. They celebrate the invasion and indicate that, besides organized crime, the troops come in handy to deal with popular protests, like the recently formed APPM (same as APPO, except that is M[ichoacán] rather than O[axaca]). That's what I thought... Surveys are showing some level of political exhaustion among regular people, and some are inclined to give Calderón some time to prove his worth. That group includes people in the leadership of the PRD. Support for López Obrador's Legitimate Presidency has declined slightly. But he is still in campaign and determined as ever. In the last few weeks, he visited a bunch of places in the north, filling theaters and public plazas. Some people reason that the existence of the legitimate presidency is good to keep Calderón's government honest. I think the expectation of Calderón's government being honest under pressure is foolish. I expect it to be even more rapacious and corrupt -- after me the deluge. Calderón designated hardliners to his security cabinet, "neoliberals" to the economic cabinet, and corrupt political allies in education and social programs. One of the figures in the economic cabinet (the communications and transportation minister) is Luis Téllez Kuenzler, one of the original promoters of "neoliberalism" in Mexico, closely linked to former president Carlos Salinas de Gortari, and the representative of the Carlyle Group in Mexico. Perhaps triggered by the coming recession in the U.S. or a catastrophic failure of his invasion of Michoacán, but -- I think -- the chances of Calderón's administration melting down are rather high. The latest news is the admission by a coalition of small guerrilla groups of their setting bombs recently in various places in Mexico City to protest against the repression in Oaxaca. They defend their actions. Their position is interesting in that they don't denounce the legal and electoral struggle and claim to "support the people who support López Obrador," even though they've never expected much from a possible López Obrador administration. They say the legal and clandestine struggles are not mutually exclusive. http://www.jornada.unam.mx/2006/12/15/index.php?section=politica&article=012e1pol http://www.jornada.unam.mx/2006/12/15/portada.pdf
