Marv Gandall posted: "High Prices Prod Developed World To Curb Oil Use; Data Show First Drop In Two Decades in West; Crude Dips Below $50"
Gulick sez: I wonder how much the following dynamic of cause and effect enters the equation, or could enter the equation in future: much higher petroleum prices -> somewhat higher energy resource prices in general -> accelerated shifting of energy-intensive industrial production from high-wage OECD to low-wage China -> energy-intensive Chinese industrial producers substitute domestic coal for foreign oil as an indirect source of motive power (what with those 100's of coal fired power plants coming on line) I guess I could make some headway with this hypothesis by checking out year-on-year Chinese coal extraction and burning stats, but I do recall reading somewhere that this accounted for the serious tapering of Chinese oil consumption growth. In essence, the short-term impact of OECD countries gobbling slightly less oil is China gobbling a lot more (dirty brown) coal. Having been to Beijing recently, you'd better damn believe that local and national notables are hoping that the wind is blowing the right way when the world's eyes are on the town in Summer 2008... I guess I also read somewhere about the CCP adding cloud-seeding experiments to their smoke and mirrors arsenal. And on a related note, isn't the stateside biofuels and ethanol craze going to put huge pressure on North American natural gas supplies? John Gulick Akita, Japan _________________________________________________________________
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