On 1/29/07, Jim Devine <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
I've been very busy. It took me a lot of time to get back to this.
On 1/20/07, Yoshie Furuhashi <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> Charming whom? The American people? But it's not the American people
> who are demanding a war with Iran; it's the White House that's going
> forward in the absence of opposition.
but the Iranians could aim their effortt to "charm" the US people --
and people all over the world -- in order to try to undermine popular
support for elite policy. They might try to split Europe against the
US, too.
It's futile to try to charm the Americans, for they are feckless.
They couldn't change their own government even if their lives depended
on it. The Europeans are better at standing up for their own
short-term self interests than the Americans, but they don't stand up
for others -- they never have and never will. Iran has as many
friends as it can conceivably win: Moscow, Beijing, Damascus, Algiers,
Hizballah, Hamas, and Latin socialists, of which the first four are
purely motivated by their own national interests. The best friend the
Iranian people have outside their country, aside from Hizballah, is
Hugo Chavez, but even Chavez won't stop exporting oil to the USA in
the event of a US attack on Iran, even though he said he would.
> Take the Iraq War. The American people have already spoken, through
> elections, opinion polls, and so on. Most of them want the troops
> out, and few of them want Washington to "Surge," though none is
> charmed by Iraqi insurgents, Shi'i or Sunni.
Take the Iraq War, please! (rim shot)
It's true, but why not take the long view?
In the long run, won't we be all dead?
if people _keep on_
struggling, it might have an effect.
It has a little effect. Washington won't nuke Iran, for instance.
But not very much.
Even the
damned Demoncrats (and some GOPsters like Hagel) have turned against
the surge.
Among the "electables," Chuck Hagel is the best man, imho. Maybe
Tehran wants to talk to him, bypassing Bush and the Democrats. But,
this being an American election, that will probably make him
unelectable. :->
> What the Americans need is not Iranian charms but their own resolve to
> make their opinion count through action.
what kind of action?
We've lately seen many examples of regime or behavior change overseas,
from the Left or Right: Yugoslavia, Ukraine, France, and so on. Try
that.
me: >> What's your alternative plan for Iran, Yoshie?
she:
> As far as Iraq is concerned, Iran needs influential Arab Sunni allies
> in Iraq -- especially former Ba'athists among guerrillas and tribal
> leaders -- and Shi'i and Kurdish leaders who are popular, principled,
> and pragmatic enough to ally with the hypothetical Arab Sunni allies.
a tall order.
Yes, but that's the only way to go. Some Iranians (especially
Iran-first reformists), like some Turks, have a counterproductive
tendency to think that they are actually Europeans who are
unfortunately stuck in West Asia. But their destiny is tied up with
Arabs, not Europeans.
--
Yoshie
<http://montages.blogspot.com/>
<http://mrzine.org>
<http://monthlyreview.org/>
