When I teach about the binomial distribution, the example I use is the probability of global thermonuclear war. If the chance is .01 in any given year, it's two-to-one that it will happen at least once in the next century. Of course, if you've seen one, you've seen them all.
>Subject: >Re: PEN-L Digest - 4 Jun 2007 to 5 Jun 2007 (#2007-159) >From: >Leigh Meyers <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >Date: >Wed, 6 Jun 2007 10:31:11 -0700 > > >The commentator I act as internet news director for, Travus T. Hipp, >once said that Samuel Colt made everyone in the 'Wild West' equal... >Kalashnikov did that for the Third World (The older models could >almost be completely manufactured with an open fire pit furnace and >primitive machine tools), and nuclear weapons proliferation will do >the same for the nations of the world after a while. > >Has anyone done an econometric study or cost/benefit analysis of a >global nuclear war yet? It seems germane. > >Leigh > >-------------------- > >The arms racing literature of MAD in the poli-sci approach to GT is only >the tip of the iceberg on this research; my favorite is Dr. Strangelove >(an amalgam of John von Neumann, Edward Teller, and Henry >Kissinger(sic)) modeled in GT: > >http://www.nd.edu/~dlindley/handouts/strangelovenotes.html#N_3_ >http://www.epsnet.org/2004/pps/Craciun.pdf > >I remember Hipp from alternative format radio (KSAN-FM), which makes me >much older than (radioactive) dirt. > >Ann > >
